On July 24, France recorded more than 1,000 new cases of coronavirus in 24 hours. Should we be worried about a strong resumption of the epidemic?
Earlier this week, Professor Jean-François Delfraissy mentioned the fact that a second wave is the most likely hypothesis: "a real second wave coming from the south, for October, November, December" adding that this will be treated "In a different way."
The figures given on a weekly basis by Santé Publique France show an increase in new cases and a resumption of increased contamination in certain regions: Gironde, Brittany, Mayenne and Vosges.
In addition to these figures, the agency of the Ministry of Health also notes a decrease in the systematic adoption of preventive measures (keep a distance of at least 1 m, greet without shaking hands, stop hugging), stabilization hygiene measures and wearing a mask.
What are the strong figures?
First, an increase in the incidence of cases faster than the increase in screenings, that is to say that there are more cases declared but people are not going to be screened any more.
Then an increase in cases among people aged over 75 and over, and an increase in reports of cases in medico-social establishments (which welcome dependent people for example). Intensive care admissions have stopped declining.
As Olivier Véran says, the health authorities note “a dynamic circulation of the virus that worries"even if we are"very far from the epidemic wave ".
However, the number of clusters is increasing, ten more in the last 24 hours, bringing their number to 120 active clusters. A cluster is a locality where three or more cases have been diagnosed in the past seven days, and where patients have connected with many people (through work, family or an event).
The reproduction rate, this famous R0 which calculates how many people a patient infects, extends above 1 in new regions. This threshold is the one that allows us to consider that the epidemic is spreading.
In the event of a strong recovery, the government is rather considering localized containments.
Wearing a mask, physical distancing, washing hands, stopping hugs between relatives are all barrier gestures against the virus that must continue to be applied absolutely.