“The epidemic is not over! Exclamation mark included, this is the first sentence of the latest opinion of the scientific council on Covid-19.
18,000 dead in three months
Responsible for advising the government on the epidemic, the body outlines an improving situation, but points to the risk of “trivialization” of a disease that is still very deadly, which has led to the death of 18,000 people since December 15. .
The epidemic continues with viral circulation still high. […] The impact on the healthcare system has dropped significantly since mid-February
The Scientific Council in its opinion of March 11
The scientific council seems to confirm the validity of the end of almost all health restrictions (end of the compulsory mask in closed places, lifting of the vaccination pass, etc.) – despite the current epidemic rebound: “In all the scenarios explored, the peak of cases remains much lower than the peak of January (more than 300,000 cases per day on average, note). It could nevertheless exceed 100,000 daily cases in March “in the event of too pronounced a relaxation of behavior.
Multiple causes behind the rebound
The reasons for the current epidemic rebound are numerous and a priori identified: a strong relaxation of barrier gestures anticipating an improvement, a sub-variant of Omicron, BA.2, more contagious by 30 to 50%, winter weather, back to school …and the decline of vaccine-elicited immunity.
Impossible, recalls the scientific council, to determine in what proportions each factor plays a role, but their accumulation leads inexorably to viral circulation on the rise. This is moreover almost generalized on the European continent, as the BA.2 sub-variant progresses and the restrictions are lightened.
Many concerns remain
The scientific council also draws up several points of concern – and the corresponding recommendations.
First, the rate of vaccination of the oldest – and therefore the most fragile – remains insufficient.
Advocating a fourth dose (or second booster dose) for these populations, possible since Monday, he also insists on the importance of ensuring that all the most fragile, at least, have received their booster dose.
An essential measure in order to limit, at least, the increase in the number of hospitalizations in the coming weeks.
Every day, again, there are more than 1000 admissions for Covid in France in France. The Pasteur Institute is considering a small and temporary increase in this figure… provided that contacts remain limited.
An “trivialized” epidemic, despite the deaths
But the scientific council points to another blind spot: that of the “trivialization of the epidemic in society”. And notes that against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine, “the Covid-19 has taken a back seat”. In addition, “citizens have the perception that the Omicron variants led to a large number of new contaminations in December 2021, January and February 2022, but that these contaminations lead to mild forms”. For all these reasons, the body speaks of a “trivialization of the epidemic in society”:
About 18,000 Covid-related deaths have occurred in France since December 15, 2021 (a significant part of which is linked to Omicron variants, so-called mild variants), and this, with a certain form of trivialization and indifference
The Scientific Council
Beyond just people over 80, two points are likely to cause concern – jointly: the decline in immunity, whether from the vaccine or from an infection; and the immune escape exhibited by the BA.2 subvariant in particular, compared to the previous variants.
Not to mention the probable appearance of a new variant in the future… caused by the high viral circulation. This Wednesday, Israel has already announced an unknown “variant”, combining BA.1 and BA.2.
As for the lesser severity of Omicron, it should be put into perspective: faced with the weakly immunized population of Hong Kong, this variant, reputed to be not very virulent, is currently causing a real slaughter.
Individual responsibility and pedagogy
Finally, the scientific council warns of the risks linked to long covid in adults, on the one hand, and to severe damage called “Pims”, in the youngest – even after a mild or asymptomatic form.
In a context of the lifting of almost all health restrictions, he invites the authorities to “rely more on a form of individual responsibility and risk management”, in particular by making an “effort of education and information of population over the next few weeks.
According to a poll published on Tuesday, the majority of French people are against the end of the obligation to wear a mask in closed places, and a large number will continue to wear it as long as the epidemic remains at a high level.