At a time when the French government is very happy to announce the return of “normal life”, the decline of Covid-19 seems to be marking time, leaving the threat of an epidemic resumption hanging over.
When it does not want … Tuesday, Elisabeth Borne trumpeted “the end of the health protocol in companies” and the return to “a normal life” for March 14. At the same time, Swiss epidemiologist Antoine Flahault wrote: “France is capping at a high level of its epidemic activity, with high mortality.” No chance.
In detail, the French regions are not all in the same situation. “It starts again where the school holidays have ended the longest, so in Brittany and Normandy”, notes epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola. Like an air of deja vu for this observer of the health crisis. “Same causes, same effects. Schools are reopening without a valid protocol to manage the circulation of the virus. So the epidemic is starting again among young people and the impact on hospital criteria will be felt in a few weeks., she explains with a sigh. Thus, the weekly incidence among 6-10 year olds in Normandy fell from 725 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on February 26 to 946 on March 4. Over the same period, the number of people hospitalized with a positive Covid diagnosis fell from 1,400 to less than 1,300.
Guillaume Rozier, founder of Covidtracker, also sees in his data the outline of an epidemic rebound. “The number of cases published today is up (+7.5%) compared to that of last Monday. On average over the past week, the number of cases continues to drop (-7.5%)”, he wrote on Twitter on Monday. A trend he already observed last Sunday.
An epidemic recovery seems to be starting, but we will have to wait a few days before confirming it. The number of cases published today is up (+7.5%) compared to that of last Monday. On average over the past week, the number of cases continues to fall (-7.5%). pic.twitter.com/g9ld7WcPQT
— GRZ (@GuillaumeRozier) March 7, 2022
This possible restart on the rise is accompanied by a rise in power of the BA.2 sub-lineage of the omicron variant. The question is whether this recovery will be a wave or a chop. Last week, the epidemiologist in charge of simulations at the Institut Pasteur Simon Cauchemez, estimated that BA.2 “could slow down the decline, but not generate a significant upturn”immediately.
“Electoral Considerations”
The next wave is rather expected next fall by many epidemiologists, “due to the weakening of immune memory and the return of short, cold days”, according to Mircea Sofonea, lecturer at the University of Montpellier. Before adding that this timetable could be brought forward in the event of “Massive relaxation of barrier gestures or appearance of a new worrying variant”. So is the government dropping the mask too soon?
For Dominique Costagliola, this decision takes more “electoral considerations than public health”. However, the epidemiologist considers that, “Thanks to vaccination, we don’t need very strong measures. We could even lift everything except the wearing of the mask”she believes before regretting that nothing has been done to improve the ventilation of enclosed spaces. “We are still advised to clean the surfaces, but the Covid is transmitted through the air”she recalls.
This is the most frustrating part of this situation. There are simple measures to take for daily and long-term management of the epidemic. For example, the government could organize the weekly testing of a representative sample of the population to gauge the actual circulation of the virus. “They do it in Britain and the incidence found is three times higher than the official”explains Dominique Costagliola.
Above all, a plan could be put in place to help immunocompromised people live without disproportionate risk. “We condemn the most fragile to go to work and do their shopping at their own risk and peril, it’s scandalous”, the scientist is indignant. And us with.
The impact of Covid-19 has not finished being felt on French society. The incidence is still very high, over 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week. Vaccination helps limit the consequences in the hospital, but there are still people who die or are put on ventilators due to the coronavirus. More than 2,000 people are in critical care with Covid-19. We still deplore more than 140 daily deaths. In England, the number of hospitalizations has started to rise again since the end of February.