Emmanuel Macron will speak on Friday to present “perspectives” progressive deconfinement. Curfews, reopening of restaurants, lifting of restrictions territory by territory… The President of the Republic should provide some answers on the government’s strategy. A strategy that will also depend on the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic in the coming months. But how could the pandemic evolve this summer? Using mathematical models, the Institut Pasteur proposed different scenarios.
Covid-19: an increase in hospitalizations during the summer?
To construct these scenarios, the Institut Pasteur took into account several elements, such as the impact of current braking measures, the pace of the lifting of restrictions and vaccination, but also the increase in transmissibility and the risk of disease. hospitalization linked to the English variant, or the impact of the weather on the transmission of the virus.
A reference scenario was thus developed: it assumes that the British variant is 60% more transmissible than the classic strain and that the braking measures lead to a decrease in hospitalizations. For the time being, the English variant represents nearly 83% of contaminations in France.
In this case “A significant increase in hospitalizations could be observed if the braking measures were lifted too quickly on May 15”. And this, “even under optimistic assumptions about the vaccination rate”, explains the Institut Pasteur. 2,000 hospital admissions could thus be recorded every day during the summer if 500,000 doses of vaccine are injected daily. The number of hospitalizations could reach 3,000 per day during the summer if 350,000 doses of vaccine are administered daily.
Our report describing several scenarios for lifting braking measures is online https://t.co/0ZfpCRsxGo. pic.twitter.com/Fs7h0iciq3
– Simon Nightmare (@SCauchemez) April 27, 2021
Covid-19 epidemic: the more optimistic hypothesis of the Institut Pasteur
The Institut Pasteur has also developed a more optimistic scenario, in which the English variant is 40% more transmissible than the historical strain. “A rebound would remain possible but its amplitude would be much less important than in the reference scenario, with a smaller peak than that of the third wave“, is it indicated.
In this case, about 500 hospitalizations per day could be recorded during the summer if 500,000 doses of vaccine are administered daily. The number of hospitalizations could be around 1,500 per day if 350,000 doses of vaccine are injected daily.
“These scenarios are not forecasts. The trajectories described depend on the assumptions made; if the assumptions do not materialize, the dynamics observed may be different from the projections”, specifies the Institut Pasteur.
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