While France is currently registering more than 100,000 cases of Covid-19 per day, health authorities remain cautiously optimistic. As of Thursday, only 1,500 people remained hospitalized in a critical care ward.
All it took was a tweet from Valérie Pécresse to remind the French that one news item does not always chase another. On March 24, candidate LR announced that she had to continue the presidential campaign “from a distance” after testing positive for Covid-19. Since the beginning of the month, three members of the government (Julien Denormandie, Jean-Yves Le Drian, Laurent Pietraszewski) have had to do the same, materializing in the eyes of the general public the persistence of the viral threat.
Critical care admissions continue to decline
In fact, the resurgence of the epidemic is confirmed. According to Public Health France (SPF), over the past week, the incidence rate has jumped 35% to reach 937 cases of contamination per 100,000 inhabitants. An increase observed in all age groups, but more marked among 50-89 year olds. The fault lies with the rapid spread of the BA-2 sub-variant, now ultra-predominant on the territory (73% of sequenced samples): even more contagious than omicron, the virus has also been circulating with fewer obstacles since 14 March and the suspension of the health pass and the general wearing of masks. The average of positive cases over seven days, which smooths out the daily jolts, amounts to 110,874 daily cases.
However, unlike previous waves, this new viral outbreak is not panicking the health authorities. For good reason, the hospital feels it only a little. While visits to the emergency room for suspected Covid are increasing (+18% over the past week), the number of new hospitalized patients remains stable from one week to the next. A key indicator for the government, admissions to critical care continue to decline (-13%). On March 24, only 1,523 Covid patients were cared for in these services, almost five times less than in April 2020, at the peak of the first wave.
The fourth dose, a cartridge to keep?
Unlike past epidemic episodes, the hospital is therefore absorbing the wave today without difficulty. It is now recognized that the virulence of omicron is less than that of its delta and alpha predecessors. Above all, the significant vaccination coverage – 79.4% of the population has a complete vaccination schedule – has greatly reduced the risk of hospitalization and serious forms. Protection further reinforced by the booster dose for those most vulnerable to Covid: 83.0% of people aged 65 and over and 74.4% of people aged 80 have to date received a third dose. Still, there is a shadow on the board. According to international studies, even with a booster, the benefit of the vaccine dwindles over the months: vaccine protection against hospitalization in 60-79 year olds is 83% in the three months following the administration of a reminder, but it drops to 66% after three months…
Should we therefore already consider administering a fourth dose? Even if the government has opened access to the over 80s and to residents of nursing homes, the health authorities are divided. The High Authority for Health is in favor of it, but only for those over 65 at risk of having a severe or polypathological form. At Public Health France, we share this reservation, but first for tactical reasons: “The incidence is increasing but in terms of severe forms, we are not in a worrying situation, indicates the agency. It would be better to reserve the incentive for the fourth dose at a time when epidemiology would justify it more so as not to burn all our cartridges. A quarter of those over 80 did not receive the third dose. The priority is therefore more to reinforce the rappel coverage rather than to headlong rush.”
On the government side, optimism is now in order. Even though the modellers are wary of any prognosis, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran, on March 20, dangled “a decline in contamination in April”. At this stage, simple campaign promise.