The Covid-19 is talking about him again at the end of 2022. Rise in cases and hospitalizations, drop in temperatures and appearance of a new variant, a new wave of Covid is coming to the fore almost three years later. the onset of the pandemic, reigniting fears for those most at risk. Less than a month before the Christmas holidays, Europe 1 takes stock of the health situation in France.
The reproduction rate of Covid greater than 1
The Covid-19 epidemic, which experienced a brief lull in France after a wave at the start of the fall, is first starting up again. Friday, November 25, 48,629 new cases were recorded, compared to 33,177 new cases the previous Friday, an increase of 46%. The current rebound is already reflected in an “upward recovery in new hospitalizations and admissions to critical care”, after “four weeks of decline”, observes Public Health France in its last weekly update. More than 4,500 hospitalizations have been recorded over the past seven days.
“The famous R, the reproduction rate of Covid, has been greater than 1 for several days, which means that the incidence of the number of cases is increasing: we are at the start of a more or less exponential curve”, indicates to the AFP Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health. “It’s not very surprising because this time of year is the most favorable for virus transmissions,” he adds.
Is this really a “ninth wave”?
So have we entered the ninth wave of Covid? “We are on a high plateau”, judged Monday Brigitte Autran, the president of Covars (the organization which succeeded the Scientific Council), refusing to decide for the moment between “rebound” or new “wave”. For some experts, however, there is no doubt: “A ninth wave is forming in France and more generally in Europe, in Southeast Asia, and in North America”, declares to AFP Antoine Flahault, director from the Global Health Institute of the University of Geneva.
A wave “moved in France by the BQ.1.1 sub-variant of Omicron, responsible for the recent increase in contaminations but also hospitalizations”, according to him. BQ.1.1 is gradually replacing BA.5.
It is “complicated to predict what will happen”
Nevertheless, it has always been difficult to predict the evolution of the pandemic. Once again, it is “complicated to predict what will happen”, notes Pascal Crépey. In France, “if we base ourselves on previous years, we can expect the curve to continue to rise and that the Christmas holidays offer a first respite”, thanks to the school holidays, according to Antoine Flahault.
Among the unknowns, is the BQ1.1 sub-variant, which could become the majority, more or less transmissible or resistant to antibodies from vaccination or from a previous infection?
A population better armed than before
In the event of a new wave, the population is better armed than before. Eight first waves have brought some immunity to the population, which is also widely vaccinated but is late for the second boosters.
Treatments have proven their effectiveness, in particular Paxlovid, from the Pfizer laboratory, an antiviral which makes it possible to prevent the evolution towards serious forms. But it must be prescribed more to people at risk, as Brigitte Autran reminded us. “The situation is more favorable than three years ago, but paradoxically more complex,” says Pascal Crépey. Because “we do not measure well today the level of immunity of the population and that there are more variants circulating”.
An already struggling healthcare system
Among 60-79 year olds, only 37% are considered protected by vaccination or previous infection; among those aged 80 and over, 21%, according to the Ministry of Health and Prevention. “The levels of vaccinations are not today “not sufficient”, indicated Tuesday during a press point the ministry. “There are three weeks of mobilization left before Christmas, it is now that it is played”, a-t -he throws.
In addition, if the total number of hospitalized patients (less than 19,000) remains well below the highest levels observed this year, this recovery risks hitting an already struggling health system. The hospital is indeed tested by an epidemic of bronchiolitis of an unprecedented scale, while the seasonal flu, which is looming, raises fears of the impact of a “tripledemia”.