Crisis PR for the target group
“Aiwanger is based on the populism champion Trump”
09/05/2023 2:52 p.m
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Bavaria’s Economics Minister Aiwanger is based on former US President Trump right down to the choice of words, says communications expert Tilman Billing in an interview with ntv.de. “Both speak of a ‘witch hunt’ against them. Both have had great success with their own followers and can even increase their popularity.” For the rest of the audience, “including conservatives who reject anti-Semitism,” this approach will have a rather negative effect.
ntv.de: What advice would you give to a person who aspires to high political office, but who also knows that he made mistakes in his youth?
Tilman Billing: It’s standard in the US: Whoever runs for office is thoroughly screened beforehand. In Germany it is different. Annalena Baerbock proved that with hair-raising “mistakes” in her CV. The same naivety at Aiwanger: he had known for more than thirty years that something was going on, he even had a party friend inquire about it in 2008. This was also known in the CSU. If you’ve known that for so long, you have to have a convincing communication strategy ready when it comes out. That was totally missing from Aiwanger, and that’s surprisingly unprofessional.
is an expert in crisis communication and media trainer. In addition to top politicians, he primarily coaches board members, managing directors and entrepreneurs for appearances in front of investors, in TV programs and at business events. He is the founder of the rhetoric and communication platform stage rockers.
What went wrong at Aiwanger?
You have to differentiate: Is your own target group meant or the rest of the public? The youthful sin is definitely not the problem, the problem is how he deals with the accusations: he only admits what has actually been proven, and for the rest he follows the motto: stonewall, cover up and point to gaps in memory. Now you can forget many details from your youth. But do you really forget that you gave the Hitler salute in front of your class or smeared a swastika in the boys’ toilet? That seems pretty unlikely to me. What is particularly problematic is that he initially refused all communication and showed no remorse. If it only occurs to you after a week that you regret your behavior more than thirty years ago, that is unbelievable, it reveals calculated, tactical behavior. His regret is completely devalued by the perpetrator-victim reversal.
In your opinion, it wasn’t wise for Aiwanger to portray himself as a victim?
Again, this depends on the target audience. Aiwanger is based on the populism champion Donald Trump, even down to the choice of words: Both speak of a “witch hunt” against them. Both have great success with their own followers, they can even increase their popularity. Aiwanger will collect plus points from his regular voters in Bavaria and from the right-wing conservative public, but it will have a rather negative effect on neutral citizens throughout Germany, including conservatives who reject anti-Semitism.
On Monday morning, neither Söder nor Aiwanger commented on the matter at the traditional speech battle at the Bavarian Gillamoos folk festival. A wise decision?
They’ve probably agreed to draw a line and let the grass grow over it. Söder chained himself to Aiwanger, without any need, by the way. Now they are praying to the Bavarian Lord that no hard evidence will emerge. His followers will certainly stick to Aiwanger as a rock because – to put it mildly – there is probably a rather low sensitivity to anti-Semitism. But for Söder, the communication that he is now doing is very dangerous. Because if there is evidence, Aiwanger can drag Söder into the federal political abyss. In Bavaria, Söder will be allowed to get away with it – people have gotten used to Söder’s tactical volatility. But in northern Germany, in North Rhine-Westphalia and especially abroad, the damage to Bavaria’s reputation is high. This is bad for Munich corporations like Siemens and BMW, and bad for the nationwide acceptance of a possible chancellor candidate from Bavaria. Söder’s competitors Friedrich Merz and Hendrik Wüst will be happy.
How should Aiwanger behave now?
He has taken a direction that he can hardly revise credibly – he refuses to clarify and is not interested in sincere remorse. His intransigence seems to prove him right. This works fine until journalists find anti-Semitic evidence in his past that can no longer be denied.
Would Aiwanger be a case for you as a crisis PR expert?
It appears that he very likely only sought advice from lawyers at the beginning and did without a communications professional. He initially refused to communicate and only admitted things that were proven. For the rest, he referred to gaps in memory, a purely legal strategy. The followers believe you, but not the others. But Aiwanger doesn’t care, since he only wants to fish in the conservative-right electoral reservoir. The rest doesn’t interest him. A week later, a PR professional probably advised him to finally express his regrets. That was absolutely correct, but came a week too late. At the same time, he stylizes himself again as the victim of a campaign against him in order to protect his profile as a populist people’s tribune.
With Tilman Billing spoke to Marko Schlichting