As is always the case when a German chancellor travels to China, there are a number of demands beforehand. This time they also come from the coalition partners. Scholz, however, apparently takes his predecessor as a model – and has a business delegation on board. This is praised in China.
Volkswagen and BMW, BASF and Siemens, Merck and Biontech: When Olaf Scholz leaves for China on Thursday, the heads of large German corporations will also be on board. It will be a visit with business delegations, as we know them from Angela Merkel’s term of office. And yet a lot is different: the “change through trade” concept promoted by the ex-chancellor failed not only in relation to Russia. German politics and business are also adopting a different tone towards China, albeit slowly – and by no means uniformly.
For the China expert Roderick Kefferpütz from the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), the fact that Scholz justified taking a business delegation with him by saying that “it has always been done this way” indicates that he would like to build on his predecessor. “However, we live in different times today. The world order is in transition,” says Kefferpütz ntv.de. On the one hand, the expert points out that China has become increasingly authoritarian over the past ten years that President Xi Jinping has been in office. On the other hand, the political environment is unfavourable. “While Xi has just consolidated his power and secured a historic third term in office, there is open dissent in the traffic light coalition over how to deal with China,” said the expert.
The inconsistency in Germany’s China strategy recently became very clear in the dispute over the entry of the Chinese shipping company into a terminal in the Port of Hamburg. The six ministries involved rejected the deal, the chancellery insisted on it. In the end, the entrance was reduced, Cosco is to receive 24.9 instead of 35 percent at the terminal and thus no proper say. “The Chancellery is very much on the Merkel line of the past, looking for continuity. The really strong impulses are currently coming from the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also the Ministry of Education. They are in favor of a much more critical attitude towards China,” said plus MERICS expert Bernhard Bartsch the Deutsche Welle.
Clear announcement from Baerbock
There is no question that the forced cabinet compromise, to which the ministers of the Greens and the FDP attached a memorandum, left its mark. Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock felt compelled to remind the chancellor of the agreements in the coalition agreement before he left for the trip: “The chancellor decided the time of his trip,” she said on Tuesday, alluding to the Cosco dispute. “Now it is crucial to make the messages that we jointly defined in the coalition agreement (…) clear in China as well.” By this she means the importance of human rights, international law and fair competitive conditions in dealing with one another.
There was also criticism from the smaller coalition partner FDP. In the “ntv Frühstart” FDP Secretary General Bijan Djir-Sarai called for a new China strategy. Germany should no longer repeat mistakes made in its Russia policy. The turning point proclaimed by the Chancellor must also have an impact on China policy. The country is “an important trading partner, but also a systemic rival – everyone who puts the word turning point in their mouths should be aware of that,” he said, calling the Cosco deal naive.
“There is a struggle about the federal government’s future China policy,” says Kefferpütz. This will result in a different policy. “It will not be a 180-degree turn and a complete departure from the previous German China policy, but a reorientation.” The previous strategy was long outdated and Germany had to face the systemic competition with China.
“This is a home game for China”
The federal government is still working on codifying this new strategy in a paper. The EU is already further along, it realigned its China strategy in 2019. But the effects are still manageable. French President Emmanuel Macron suggested a joint trip to China to Scholz. A rebuff came from Berlin. “In the coalition agreement, the federal government committed itself to making its China policy more European,” says Kefferpütz, but at the same time notes: “It’s a big deal that hasn’t really been started on yet.”
Even before the start, it is clear that this trip is not without its challenges for the chancellor. He is the first EU leader to visit Beijing since 2019. And he is the first to meet Xi Jinping after he has risen to power like only Mao Zedong once did. In addition, according to Kefferpütz, the Chinese zero-Covid strategy gives Beijing the upper hand when it comes to designing the visit and its appearance. “This is a home game for China.”
In order to take the wind out of the sails of critics, Scholz had his spokesman arrange the range of topics for the trip last Friday. It’s about “the whole range” of relationships, including autocratic efforts within China and the question of human rights, as well as “reciprocity for the opening of the Chinese markets,” said Steffen Hebestreit.
The last point in particular came up again in view of the Cosco deal. The criticism: China isolating itself while acquiring holdings around the world. Kefferpütz believes that calls for more reciprocity are “not unrealistic”. The question, however, is whether this is strategically wise for Germany. “China has been willing to open up its market for a long time. Because in doing so, Beijing is bringing western companies and their valuable technologies ever deeper into its market and making them even more dependent.”
The Beijing newspaper praises Scholz’s pragmatism
This dependency in particular is to be reduced in the future – as a lesson from the failed Russia policy. Despite their common goal of changing the world order in their favor, Kefferpütz sees differences between the two countries: “While Russia creates a regulatory vacuum, China fills it and offers a new geopolitical location,” he explains. “In the long term, China is an even greater challenge for us. Our economic dependencies on China are even more pronounced.” In addition, unlike Russia, China has more power and political influence in the world.
Scholz’ trip – especially its prominent timing – will fuel this discussion. This is also being followed very closely in China. In order to make the trip a success, the chancellor must “focus on pragmatic cooperation and not on geopolitics – regardless of pressure from radical Western politicians and the media,” wrote the state-run Global Times in a comment. Demands for an opening of the Chinese market, sanctions against Russia or criticism of human rights are therefore taboo. The newspaper called “unfounded demands” from Germany “rude, presumptuous and completely unacceptable”. Not without praise for the Chancellor, with a view to the criticism of the coalition partners: “Chancellor Scholz obviously wants to achieve concrete results on the trip – otherwise he would not have put up with all this.”
China, where Merkel was valued for her pragmatic approach, is hoping for continuity. And Scholz should deliver this – after all, he is already known as Merkel’s finance minister. So it’s up to the coalition partners to dissuade the chancellor from his “always done that way” attitude.