Caroline Baudry with AFP, edited by Laura Laplaud / Photo credit: AFP
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8:03 a.m., August 10, 2023
Leaders of West African countries opposed to the coup in Niger are meeting in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Thursday for a crucial summit. “Important decisions” are expected at this summit, warned the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Tuesday, which reaffirmed that it favors diplomatic means to restore constitutional order in Niger, while now his threat of the use of force.
Towards a military intervention?
ECOWAS, through Nigeria, which holds the rotating presidency of the organization, spoke for the first time since the expiration on Sunday evening of a seven-day ultimatum issued to the military to restore President Mohamed Bazoum to his duties. . However, the new masters of Niger have so far seemed closed to attempts at negotiations by ECOWAS. This raises fears that Thursday’s summit materializes the threat of military intervention, as feared as it is criticized in the region.
All Dangerous Options
The putschists of the coup d’etat settle down and are inflexible. Now all options are dangerous. Letting the putschists govern shows that they are tolerated and opens the way to contagion to surrounding countries such as Togo. It could also reconfigure the Western military, political and economic presence in the region. In short, to upset the strategic situation of the Sahel.
But armed intervention to restore President-elect Mohamed Bazoum is far too risky, according to Gabriel Poda, an analyst at consultancy Sahel Politica in Geneva. “The risk of an explosion would be enormous for the stability of the States of the Sahel, whether in Niger itself or in Burkina, in Mali or in coastal countries as well. Especially since today, the countries are committing their economic, financial and military resources in the fight against jihadism. I find it very hard to see the States committing their means and their resources to go and carry out a military intervention in Niger. There are no real options”, affirms he.
Multiple challenges for ECOWAS
The challenge is multiple for ECOWAS. Find a way out of the crisis, ensure the safety of President Bazoum, sequestered in his private residence, and try to maintain credibility, very tainted by the total failure of the negotiations.
Since August 7, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad have been classified red on the map of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Any travel to these countries is therefore formally discouraged.