CSU is threatened with historic bankruptcy
Free voters in Bavaria are increasing even further
September 12, 2023, 6:56 p.m
In the “BayernTrend” the Free Voters scored one percentage point more than in another survey. Compared to the time before the Hubert Aiwanger leaflet affair, the party has made significant gains. Things continue to look bad for the CSU.
Less than a month before the state elections in Bavaria, the Free Voters are still at the polls high. According to “BayernTrend” published by Bayerischer Rundfunk (BR), they would get 17 percent approval if there were a state election on Sunday, despite the leaflet affair by their chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Prime Minister Markus Söder of the CSU, on the other hand, is threatened with a historic bankruptcy – the Christian Socialists only achieved 36 percent in the survey. They recently got the same value in the “ZDF Political Barometer” – the Free Voters ended up at 16 percent.
For Economics Minister Aiwanger’s party, the 17 percent represents an increase of five percentage points compared to the “BayernTrend” from May, while the CSU loses significantly and performs three points weaker. In 2018, Söder and the CSU only got 37.2 percent of the vote in Bavaria – the worst state election result in almost 70 years.
According to the BR, only the AfD can make gains among the opposition parties, improving by one point to 13. The Greens lose one point to 15 percent. The SPD loses two points and is now at nine percent. The FDP would leave the state parliament with three percent. In May, the Liberals were also below the five percent threshold at four percent.
Aiwanger renews his allegations
The leaflet affair hasn’t hurt Aiwanger’s personal rating either; with unchanged approval ratings of 48 percent of satisfied voters, he is in second place on the list of the most popular state politicians, as in May. In first place is still Söder, with whom 56 percent are satisfied. This means that the CSU boss has a similar level of support as when he won the election in 2018, but he is behind previous CSU prime ministers in terms of reputation. The most popular opposition politician remains Green Party parliamentary group leader Katharina Schulze with support from 25 percent of eligible voters, followed by SPD top candidate Florian von Brunn (17 percent).
Bavaria’s desired coalition is the existing coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters, which, according to the survey, 51 percent support. However, only 24 percent want an alliance between the CSU and the Greens, which is also mathematically possible – before the state elections in 2018, 44 percent of those surveyed still sympathized with the black-green coalition. Söder now categorically rules out such a coalition. The state election will take place on October 8th at the same time as Hesse.
In view of the polls’ high, Aiwanger renewed his claim that the reporting on the anti-Semitic leaflet was a “smear campaign”. The voters see “that one should be given to the Aiwanger right at the start of the postal vote and this is now being acknowledged accordingly by people supporting the Free Voters and not the smear campaign that was prepared long in advance.” There is no evidence of such a campaign.
Journalists’ Association clearly contradicts this
Frank Überall, chairman of the German Association of Journalists, had already rejected Aiwanger’s allegations two weeks ago. He told “BR24 Medien” that “proper research was carried out” – and that this was also documented. He accused Aiwanger of not having “even rudimentary knowledge of journalism and media” as the deputy prime minister of a large federal state. The accusation of a “smear campaign” is “crude nonsense”.
Frank Überall also sees the repeated criticism of the timing of the publication a few weeks before the state elections as baseless. In more than 25 years he has never experienced a publication date being deliberately controlled for political reasons.
In an interview with ntv.de, communications expert Tilman Billing said about the head of the Free Voters and his portrayal as a victim: “Aiwanger is based on the master of populism Donald Trump, even down to the choice of words: both speak of a ‘witch hunt’ against them. Their own Both supporters have great success with this, they can even increase their popularity. Aiwanger will collect positive points with his regular voters in Bavaria and with the right-wing conservative audience, but with neutral citizens throughout Germany, including conservatives who reject anti-Semitism, it will have a rather negative effect.”