Danger not averted in the north
How Israel must fight on three fronts
From Tal Leder, Tel Aviv
November 23, 2023, 2:07 p.m
As Israel attacks Hamas in Gaza, new battlefields are opening up: Hezbollah is firing rockets from Lebanon, and the danger of the war expanding has not yet been averted. And then Israel is also fighting on the front lines in cyberspace.
While the world focuses on the war in the Gaza Strip, another threat to Israel has faded from view. Tehran, which has made the destruction of Israel part of its state doctrine, could open a second front through additional proxies at any time.
“While people in Israel were still mourning, Hezbollah was firing rockets at the towns in the north,” says Assaf Kedem, referring to the horror that came to Israel on October 7th with the Hamas massacres. Kedem runs a winery in the Golan Heights near the Lebanese border. “So far it is still a small conflict. But the radical Islamic terrorist organization from Lebanon wants to prove to the Palestinians and Iranians that they are taking action against Israel.”
The uncertain future is scary
Some of his employees were drafted into military service. Others had to be evacuated to the south due to increasing tensions. Like many in his industry, Kedem is frightened by the uncertain future. Across Israel, many wineries were in the middle of harvest when Hamas broke the ceasefire and invaded Israel. “Wine seems unimportant at the moment,” he explains. “To create a new reality for our residents, Israel should tighten its deterrence balance against Hezbollah.”
Fighting is now taking place daily not far from Israel’s border with Lebanon. The IDF responds to Hezbollah rockets with heavy artillery, warning the militia not to join Hamas in Gaza and open a second front.
“If Hezbollah recognizes weakness in us, then they will get hungry,” says Tamir Hayman, former commander of Israeli military intelligence. “That is why Israel is opposing it with all its determination and strength. Hezbollah is Iran’s most important partner, but it is difficult to imagine Tehran sacrificing its Shiite militia for Sunni terrorists in Gaza.” Like the Iranian regime, Hezbollah is Shiite, while Hamas is Sunni.
Nevertheless, the security expert warns of the danger of war due to misunderstandings, for example if an action could be misinterpreted by both sides. With its structure, firepower, units and rockets, Hezbollah operates on a completely different scale than Hamas. Other Iranian proxies in Yemen and Syria have already fired volleys of rockets at Israel, and units are even ready in Iraq. “The IDF can also fight on three fronts,” explains Hayman. The problem is not the military, “but the home front. The suffering and resilience of Israeli society.”
The third front: The war for minds
Since its founding, Israel has faced threats from various directions. In the Middle East wars they were attacked several times by numerous Arab armies in alliance. But now battles are not only fought and won on the battlefield, but also in the media. Conflict parties use television and, for a long time now, the Internet to win the war for hearts and minds, i.e. the opinion of the global public. It is not uncommon for truth and fiction to be mixed.
“There is pure chaos on the Internet,” says Josef Dar, co-founder of the Internet surveillance company Cyabra. “We have examined millions of posts and comments about the war posted by countless accounts on various social media platforms since October 7.” Thousands of them were created more than a year before the attack. “You mainly see the participation of fictitious users who propagate anti-Semitic and pro-Palestinian narratives.”
The media expert estimates that this targeted disinformation reaches over half a billion accounts. Platform users even share images of previous conflicts, images from video games or images created with artificial intelligence, which they post as authentic reports about the conflict.
Not only terrorist organizations are said to be behind the cyber war, but also Iran. “They distribute Hamas’ horror videos to influence opinion, but also to undermine deterrence,” says Dar. “They want to spread more conspiracy theories – like about the traitor from within who supported Hamas.” Their aim is to create division in the nation and weaken morale.
Winemaker Assaf Kedem perceives a “mourning mood” in Israel. “Families are staying home and watching the news. Most restaurants remain closed, as do the tasting rooms at many wineries.” Although he and his team would be evacuated if a second front were opened, he hopes to raise a glass to this vintage with his people at some point. “In these times, making wine feels insignificant,” says Kedem. “But it is our responsibility to continue to produce it and bring a bit of culture, joy and light into the world.”