It is a day of strike and demonstration that our country will know this Thursday. Several unions including the CGT, Solidaires or the Unef have called for a day of interprofessional mobilization “for salaries, pensions, scholarships, social minima”. Will this day lead the head of state to change his plans with regard to pension reform? This is the question of the day. While Emmanuel Macron met Wednesday evening at the Elysée the Prime Minister, the ministers concerned and the heads of parliamentary groups of the majority to work on the said reform.
No apprehension at the Élysée
In truth, at the top of the state, there is little or no apprehension at the dawn of this day. At the Elysée as at Matignon confidence reigns, “no worries”, loose with a smile an adviser to the president. And for good reason: territorial intelligence has raised its forecasts to the top of the state and they are rather reassuring for Emmanuel Macron.
Nationally, between 68,000 and 75,000 demonstrators at most are expected in the street… Paris included! Because in the capital, the mobilization should not exceed 8,000 participants. Far, very far, for example from act 1 of the “yellow vests” when 288,000 people had beaten the pavement everywhere in France.
Emmanuel Macron has submitted his battle plan
The sparse streets of this Thursday should therefore offer a boulevard to the president, determined to enforce his pension reform at all costs while sparing the most reluctant members of his camp. Emmanuel Macron has therefore already taken the lead on Wednesday evening at the palace. He submitted his battle plan to the ministers concerned and to the leaders of the majority groups.
49-3 could be used to push through reform
The reform would no longer fit next month in an amendment to the Social Security financing bill but in three to four months, in an amending budget for Social Security and using 49-3. A solution that would allow the tenant of the Élysée to respect his campaign promise to make the reform effective by the summer of 2023. And thus to prove that he still has control over national politics despite his relative majority.
A third way which could also satisfy the boss of the MoDem, François Bayrou, whom he will see Friday morning in Pau. Sign that the rule of “at the same time” also applies to the second term.
A new round of consultations will open
The government will open a new round of consultations around the pension reform, with a view to adopting a bill “before the end of winter”, Elisabeth Borne announced Thursday, after a meeting at the Élysée with the majority. “We are choosing dialogue and consultation” with the social partners and the political parties, declared the Prime Minister, before the national day of trade union mobilization, adding that she would like “the entry into force of the reform in the summer of 2023 “.