Death of Prigojine: who will seize the remains of the Wagner group?

“He is a man with a complicated destiny. He made serious mistakes in his life. He was a talented man and businessman.” This is the contrasting tribute that Vladimir Putin delivered to evoke the leader of the Wagner militia, Evgueni Prigojine, who died in the crash of his plane on Wednesday. Among most observers, there is no longer any doubt: he and his main collaborators have been eliminated, no doubt with the consent of the Russian president. The dismantling of the sprawling Wagner group will therefore be able to continue, probably for the benefit of those close to Vladimir Putin.

80 oligarchs to retain

With the disappearance of Prigojine and his staff, this immense treasure that is Wagner – with its fighters, its lucrative contracts, its influence in Africa – becomes for Vladimir Putin a means of rewarding his faithful, with scholarly distributions intended to consolidate the power of the Kremlin. The first served since last June is Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defence. Loyal among the faithful, he gained influence with the resumption of convict means of combat and the army’s control over the fighting.

In hollow also, more possibilities of enrichment: the certainty for Putin to be quiet side army. The juicy public contracts, which brought in almost a billion euros to the Wagner group last year, are also to be resumed. About 80 oligarchs close to power and services are financially involved in the war effort. These are all people to reward to retain them, with priority to those from Saint Petersburg, like Vladimir Putin. And the lucrative trafficking from African mines should also be resumed and redistributed. The problem will be to find a balance with the losers so as not to recreate too many new enemies that are too powerful.