Juline Garnier / Photo credit: MOHAMMED HAMOUD / ANADOLU / ANADOLU VIA AFP
For weeks, they have been attacking international maritime traffic in the Red Sea in “solidarity” with Gaza. The Houthis, a group of armed Yemeni rebels, once again claimed this Friday morning to have targeted an American merchant ship circulating in the Gulf of Aden. On Wednesday, Washington also put the rebel movement back on one of its lists of “terrorist” organizations and struck Houthi positions several times. Why such an escalation in the region? We take stock.
Who are the Houthis?
The Houthis, whose name refers to a Yemeni tribe and Muslim spiritual leader Badreddine al-Houthi, have been active since the mid-1990s in northern Yemen. “At the very beginning, the demands are mainly socio-economic, linked to the inequalities of development on the Yemeni territory. In the north, the regions are much poorer and with a specific social and confessional coloring. The Houthis appear to put pressure on the “former government of Abdallah Saleh, in place until 2011”, explains Jean-Loup Samaan, associate researcher at IFRI and specialist in the region.
Initially unarmed, this group even participates in the political process but is not going to get what it wants. At the end of the 1990s, the Houthis entered into an armed struggle, causing a series of conflicts with the government, against a backdrop of rivalry between Zaydists – a branch of the Shiites -, the Houthi faith, and Sunnis. “It is therefore a fairly old conflict,” explains Jean-Loup Samaan. After the fall of Saleh, the latter took advantage of the weakness of the following government, supported by Saudi Arabia, to lead an offensive on the capital Sanaa from the north and take control of it. Today, a large part of western Yemen is in the hands of Houthi rebels, supported by Iran.
“Iranian military support really begins in 2015. It is less ideological than strategic and opportunistic, in the sense that it is a way for the Iranians to weaken the Saudis at low cost, by strengthening a militia in another country, where they will be able, without being directly involved, to weaken their rival,” explains the specialist. Military support which explains the means deployed by the Houthis in their current attacks in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, off the coast of Yemen and at the entrance to the Red Sea.
Why attack Western ships?
For Jean-Loup Samaan, there are several reasons for attacks on commercial ships. First, these attacks are a way for the Houthis to put the crisis in Yemen back on the international stage. The country has been engaged in a process of ending the crisis for two years, with on the one hand Saudi Arabia wishing to withdraw and on the other the group of rebels wanting to control the political transition as much as possible, without sharing power, and this despite criticism from the Yemeni population. “So it is a way, vis-à-vis the Americans and the Saudis, of reaffirming the balance of power and saying that we cannot envisage the stability of the Gulf without accepting the presence of the Houthis,” continues the researcher. of IFRI.
As for support for the Palestinian cause, this is more opportunism and a way of capitalizing on media interest around the Israel-Hamas conflict than a real position. “The pro-Palestinian card allows them to gain points in opinions quite easily. It allows Yemenis to cling to this narrative and to say ‘we fight for the Palestinians as we fight for the Yemenis’, against the Westerners”, explains Jean-Loup Samaan.
Should we fear a conflagration in the region?
To combat Houthi attacks and secure the strait, the United States launched Operation Guardians of Prosperity, quickly joined by the United Kingdom and to a lesser extent other countries such as Norway, the -Bas or France. Several frigates and destroyers, as well as the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower, are participating in this operation.
Despite a total of five strikes on Houthi positions, the situation appears unchanged. However, the stakes are high: 12% of world trade flows through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, a crossing point before the Suez Canal. Many shipowners preferred to interrupt their traffic in this area for an alternative route around the South African Cape of Good Hope, which is longer and more expensive. Since mid-November, the number of containers has fallen by 70%, according to maritime experts.
“We have no indicators to hope for a de-escalation. In my opinion, they will need real concrete elements, showing that the Houthis are not going to hit them, for them to come back. And for the moment, these elements do not are not there”, analyzes Jean-Loup Samaan. The determining element remains the position of Iran, the main supplier of the arsenal used by the Houthis. An explicit request to stop attacks could contribute to de-escalation.