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France chooses change – this iron rule has been in effect for over 40 years, since the election of the socialist Mitterand. Since then, majorities have generally alternated between left and right. After five years, Mitterand had to appoint a right-wing government because it had won the general election. In return, after these two years of cohabitation, Mitterrand managed to be elected against his prime minister, Jacques Chirac.
Emmanuel Macron is the first president since Charles de Gaulle to be re-elected without first struggling with cohabitation.
Election year confirmed: France chooses the change
Now Macron has achieved a second premiere, this time against his will: voters are refusing a newly elected president his own majority in parliament, for the first time in over 30 years. The election year 2022 confirms: France is choosing the change.
The left-wing union, the conservative Républicains and the right-wing national Rassemblement Nationale are now in the majority. Politically, these three blocs have nothing to do with each other. The only thing they have in common is their aversion to Emmanuel Macron. They have already shown this in the parliamentary election campaign. The main goal of the opposition: to prevent the president from continuing to govern. They have achieved this for now.
Stable coalition is not in sight
Emmanuel Macron will now have to do many things differently in his second term: Thanks to his own majority in Parliament, he was able to pursue his policies for five years without worrying much about the opposition. Now Parliament suddenly becomes important. The first hurdle has already been cleared: it cannot be taken for granted that the government appointed by the President will be approved by Parliament.
This government will later have to form coalitions in Parliament. These are likely to be changing alliances from case to case. A stable coalition is not in sight. Macron will hardly agree to work with the left alliance or the Rassemblement Nationale. This would also strain the cohesion of his own alliance. The conservative Républicain are also unavailable for an agreement, they say.
Blockage or system change
If everyone stays in these positions, French politics will come to a standstill. Politics would be largely blocked, especially in economic policy. France’s president only has exclusive powers in foreign and security policy.
In addition, he could dissolve parliament before the official end of his term in 2027: the risk for Macron would be that his relative majority could shrink further. Macron would have to show that the united opposition only blocks. This takes time, which France doesn’t actually have given the urgent problems in economic and environmental policy.
The other, optimistic variant: Parliament is actually developing into a place where political debates are held and compromises are negotiated. This would be new for France – and a real change in the system.