Wednesday, June 9th 2021
Delta variant will dominate
Drosten warns of vaccination fatigue in summer
People enjoy the summer temperatures, the corona situation has relaxed significantly. Virologist Drosten warns of a negligence in vaccination precisely for this reason. The goal would have to be “at least 80 percent double vaccinations” – precisely because of the spread of mutations.
The virologist Christian Drosten has warned of setbacks for the corona vaccination campaign over the summer in Germany. You have to be careful that people do not become careless in the future and, for example, no longer pick up the second vaccination because they no longer feel like it or it is too complicated, said the head of virology at the Berlin Charité in the podcast “Coronavirus Update” from NDR-Info.
“Things like that should just not happen. I think that will be the next big task,” said Drosten. He therefore expects a discussion on promoting vaccination readiness in a few weeks’ time. The goal is at least 80 percent double vaccinations, at least in the “adult population capable of vaccination,” he said. Hopefully this will be achieved by the end of August, mid-September. The proportion of the population who are fully vaccinated is currently just under 22 percent.
Even after the set order was canceled on Monday, it was initially important to vaccinate the groups in which this was urgent due to the increased Covid 19 risk. At the moment, the focus must still be on caring for people in their mid-40s, said Drosten.
High vaccination rate necessary because of variants
The fact that the vaccination campaign does not stall is also important for the scientist against the background of the virus variants classified as worrying: The mutant Delta or similar variants, which were first discovered in India, would “certainly dominate the field here by autumn,” said Drosten. Until then, it is important to ensure that the vaccination rate for adults is as high as possible. “Then we won’t have any big problems” – he only sees a small question mark in this regard when it comes to children. In England, outbreaks in schools have been observed due to the Delta variant.
Variants are classified as worrying if, for example, they may spread more easily, cause more severe disease or if the virus has changed in such a way that the protection of vaccinated and convalescents could be impaired. Drosten continues to see uncertainties about the Delta variant, which worries experts in England. Only when the virus continues to spread into the general population there will one see what the virus is really about, he said.
For Drosten, it is important to look at the delta development in other countries: So far, however, neither in Denmark, where many samples are analyzed, nor in Germany has a strong increase been seen in the past few weeks. In Germany, the proportion of samples examined by Delta was around two percent, according to reports from the Robert Koch Institute over the past few weeks. Drosten reported unofficial figures that suggested that “there may be a slight increase, but certainly not a doubling”. A doubling of the values from week to week has been observed in England.
Sharp criticism of the WHO
“Of course the number of cases will go up again towards winter. That can also happen in autumn. But that will happen every winter from now on,” Drosten continued. The situation is then changed by the expected effect of the vaccinations on the course of the disease: If one were to strictly only measure laboratory evidence, one would see a kind of fourth wave. But then it is no longer a pandemic wave. Drosten had previously emphasized several times that he expected in the long term that Sars-CoV-2 would behave like the well-known corona viruses that cause colds.
After his assumption, expressed in an interview at the weekend, that Corona could have reached humans from bats via the fur industry, Drosten suggested a corresponding scientific investigation – “which of course can and should be carried out purely in China and by Chinese scientists”. It is possible that the virus can no longer be found in breeding farms these days, for example because stocks have long been culled. It is also possible that the pathogen came to China from breeding in another country through trade relations.
Drosten clearly criticized the action of the World Health Organization (WHO), which had sent a commission of experts to China because of unresolved questions. Among other things, the formation of the group was not transparent. The procedure also does not correspond to the usual scientific process. The group’s report reads as if “some of the questions here had been carefully tapped in a short amount of time”. Drosten said: “That is really not acceptable for me either.” About attempts to investigate the basis of some assumptions about the beginning of the pandemic, he said: “If you then go to the source, as you can at least as a Western scientist, you will come across nothing.”
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