Graeme Train is responsible for metals and minerals analysis at Trafiguraa leading global trader specializing in the brokerage and transportation of commodities.
Trafigura is the second largest copper trader in the world after Glencore. How do you see demand for this metal evolving over the coming years?
With the energy transition, we must expect that our uses will all be increasingly electrified. Copper consumption, which is currently around 30 million tonnes per year, is expected to grow by 10 million tonnes over the next decade. Of these 10 million, a third will supply the demand for electric vehicles, another third will be used for energy infrastructure and networks, while the balance will be found in construction, particularly in emerging countries, in data centers and to respond automation-related needs.
What is the stock status to date? Are you worried about a shortage in the short term?
We are already seeing that demand for copper has exceeded supply for ten years. For comparison, while stocks in all warehouses reached 1.5 million tonnes in 2013, they were only 300,000 tonnes at the end of 2023.
South America, Indonesia, Australia and Canada remain the main countries supplying the world with copper. Africa, where China is particularly well established, however, seems to be of increasing interest to large Western mining groups. For what ?
Until now, the big mining majors tended to avoid Africa, which they considered too high risk. But the fact that we are entering a new phase of demand and that stable, quality projects have been successfully developed there encourages them to take a closer look. The continent also offers more attractive costs than in South America. But if Africa is one of the solutions to the geographic diversification of supply, it will not be able to provide the additional 10 million tonnes by 2034. It will only provide 3 to 4 million at most. .
In February 2023, Trafigura obtained the concession for the Lobito corridor, in Angola. The renovation of this railway line which connects the Democratic Republic of Congo to the port of Lobito could allow the sale of 10,000 tonnes of copper from 2024, then 120,000 to 240,000 per year thereafter. What is the main issue of this contract?
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