Against the background of the Russian war against Ukraine, Denmark is giving up its legal reservations about EU defense policy. Two-thirds of the voters said yes. The result is a political sign; in practice, however, not much changes for Copenhagen.
“If Putin invades a free and independent country, then the rest of us will come closer together,” said Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, commenting on the result of the vote in Denmark.
In a referendum on Wednesday, the Danish people voted with a two-thirds majority and thus very clearly in favor of the abolition of legal reservations regarding the common EU security and defense policy. Copenhagen was granted this reservation around thirty years ago, along with three others (concerning the common currency, justice and home affairs) in order to persuade the country to accept the Maastricht agreements.
That clear voting result is surprising insofar as Denmark has so far consistently followed the maxim “only as much EU as is absolutely necessary”.
In the run-up to the referendum, the parliamentary parties were right, with the exception of two formations on the right and left-green closed behind the template. But a look at history shows that this did not have to mean much, because in 2015 the electorate, with a similar starting point, sent the lifting of the legal reservation regarding police cooperation with the EU bachab. Political commentators at the time thought that the issue was difficult to understand, which is why the result of the vote should be interpreted more as an expression of general sentiment towards the EU than as a vote on the bill itself.
Putin’s war is decisive
However, fears that this could be the case this time as well were unfounded. Rather, Russia’s war against Ukraine gave the voting issue a very concrete context. Denmark’s Social Democratic Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that with the result of the vote, the Danish people had not only sent a clear signal to the EU, but also to President Vladimir Putin: if Russia invaded a democratic country and threatened European stability, the rest of Europe would pull together. “It’s the right decision for both Denmark and the continent we are part of,” said Frederiksen. She is happy and proud.
In practice, relatively little will change for Denmark once the technical issues related to the lifting of the legal reservation are resolved in a few weeks. The country will take part in joint EU security policy operations and will be able to have a say in shaping security policy.
As a founding member of NATO, Denmark has been an integral part of the European security architecture for decades. Commentators noted that Denmark’s security policy orientation towards the EU could be a consequence of the fact that the previously non-aligned Nordic states of Sweden and Finland recently opted for NATO membership. Copenhagen has now seized the opportunity to strengthen the “Nordic line” of European security policy.
Frederiksen firmly in the saddle
The extent to which the referendum signals a fundamental departure from the Danish population’s previous reserved attitude towards the EU or is primarily due to the special nature of the current security situation can hardly be clearly defined. At just under 66 percent, participation in the referendum was lower than on similar occasions.
On the other hand, there is a certain shift in power among the parliamentary parties as far as the relationship with the EU is concerned. For the right-wing formations of the Danish People’s Party and the New Bourgeois, the vote could have been a through ball to mobilize their electorate. But this seems to have shrunk significantly compared to before.
This puts Prime Minister Frederiksen firmly in the saddle with her social democratic minority government a year before the next parliamentary elections. In principle, the handbook for Danish heads of government never calls for a referendum towards the end of a legislative period, said a political commentator on the Danish television channel DR. Because if a government is unpopular, this could easily overshadow the factual issue of a referendum. However, Frederiksen passed this test with flying colours.