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For four years, Sam Altman has been the face of OpenAI. But since last year, with the explosion of ChatGPT, he has by extension become the spokesperson for the generative AI movement.
Yet the tech world was shaken last Friday when it was revealed that OpenAI’s board of directors had decided to get rid of Sam Altman because he “has not always been forthright in his communications with the board of directors.
Things are getting tougher. Microsoft, which has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, not only picked up Sam Altman, but also Greg Brockman, the co-founder of OpenAI. The two men will now lead a “new advanced AI research team”, according to Microsoft executive Satya Nadella.
But the story does not end there. According to Wired, “nearly 500 OpenAl employees have signed a letter saying they could leave the company and join Sam Altman at Microsoft unless the startup’s board resigns and appoints the ousted CEO again.”
If this case excites the crowds, what does it mean for the future of ChatGPT and generative AI?
For now, we can only make assumptions.
And first, let’s review what we know:
- ChatGPT requires huge resources to run.
- Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI.
- Microsoft has integrated OpenAI technology into many of its products.
- ChatGPT is incredibly popular.
First speculation: OpenAI must have a disproportionate absorption rate. There is simply no way the company will be profitable at this point. It must therefore rely on the financial resources of its investors, and in particular those of Microsoft.
If the decision of the OpenAI board of directors still remains mysterious, events seem to prove that Sam Altman, if he has lost his support, still has the confidence of Microsoft – which otherwise would not have entrusted him with such position – and that of his team. Starting from these foundations, we can suggest three possible paths for the future of OpenAI and generative AI.
First hypothesis: OpenAI continues its activities as if nothing had happened
This weekend, the reins of the organization were taken by the former technical director, Mira Murati. After acting for a few hours, she was replaced by former Twitch CEO Emmett Shear, who was named CEO, as we can read on (formerly Twitter).
The question then is: what will happen if the OpenAI development team follows through on their threats and leaves for Microsoft? And what will Microsoft do? Will the Redmond firm continue to integrate ChatGPT into its products, or will this situation lead to a complete loss of confidence in OpenAI? Will the latter be able to maintain its current infrastructure with reduced capacity?
From my outside perspective, this decision would lead to a disaster scenario. In this case, OpenAI would try to keep it working, even though it would never be the same again. The company would thus open the door to numerous competitors, including its business partner Microsoft, and thus undo the incredible momentum it has experienced in recent years.
If this hypothesis turns out to be true, it would confirm that the OpenAI board’s decision was an unforeseen mistake, a self-inflicted wound… and one that could prove fatal.
Second hypothesis: Microsoft is building a competitor to ChatGPT
In this scenario, Microsoft engages in a Manhattan Project to build a full-fledged competitor to ChatGPT at lightning speed. We must not forget that Bing Chat, now Copilot, is essentially a remodel of ChatGPT technology, which uses its API. It is very likely that Microsoft has already carried out research in this direction. And by recruiting Sam Altman and potentially part of his team, this work will accelerate considerably.
Still, there are clearly intellectual property and trade secret issues, particularly regarding what Sam Altman and Greg Brockman can and cannot communicate from their former employer to Microsoft.
From my point of view, this solution is not particularly effective, given Microsoft’s efforts to integrate OpenAI technology into its products. The software giant could certainly build such a competitor, but it could probably use its time and resources in a more efficient way – as the third hypothesis shows.
Third hypothesis: Microsoft acquires OpenAI
Microsoft acquires what’s left of OpenAI, and fires its current board of directors. With much of OpenAI’s current technology already running on Azure, this move would make a lot of sense infrastructure-wise.
On the management side, Microsoft now has the spiritual, and perhaps soon technical, leadership of OpenAI. Additionally, if the organization’s employees are already planning to defect, it would make sense for Microsoft to simply incorporate it into its gigantic portfolio.
From my point of view, this is the only practical way for OpenAI to survive. Because, if the company loses most of its innovation team, it will be nothing more than an empty shell operating on existing technology, while the market in which it operates develops at dizzying speed. And its competitors will quickly overtake it.
On the other hand, if OpenAI is integrated into Microsoft, it will be able to continue to move forward at the same pace, under the leadership of a team with which it already feels comfortable, and continue to implement the plans it already has. elaborated.
Given the amounts already invested by Microsoft in the organization, its price may not be as significant as for another buyer in the context of a takeover.
Will Microsoft slow OpenAI’s growth?
It is important to remember that all of these hypotheses assume that the OpenAI board of directors made a mistake in firing Sam Altman, and that the latter is not guilty of any serious misconduct.
Additionally, Microsoft’s approach to innovation is significantly different from the one Sam Altman developed at OpenAI. If the software giant acquires OpenAI, we do not yet know to what extent its involvement will hamper this innovation engine.
The other unknown concerns the growth of ChatGPT: won’t making ChatGPT a Microsoft product – Copilot, formerly Bing Chat – stunt the enormous growth rate of the technology created by OpenAI? Answer soon.
Source: ZDNet.com