The second Republican primary will take place in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Trump already has only one competitor in Nikki Haley. Soon there could be even fewer.
For Nikki Haley, the road to the US Republican presidential nomination is becoming increasingly rocky. After her defeat in Iowa a week ago, the former UN ambassador and governor is threatened with another bankruptcy this Tuesday in New Hampshire – although after Ron DeSantis has left office, she is now the only alternative for all those who want someone other than Donald Trump in office Want to send race against President Joe Biden. In fact, nowhere are their chances as great as in the state on the east coast. But that doesn’t mean that the chances are really good. It did help her that the moderate Republican Chris Christie had already given up. But with DeSantis’ exit, their prospects are darkening again.
Close to the people in jeans and a sweater – Nikki Haley at a campaign speech in Exeter, New Hampshire. Trump’s last remaining opponent in the Republican primary must win in New Hampshire on Tuesday to have any chance of running.
(Photo: picture alliance / newscom)
A look at the surveys shows the misery: According to one new survey by the renowned newspaper “Boston Globe” Trump got 55 percent of the vote, Haley got 36 and DeSantis got 6. At least, another survey by the American Research Group shows a more balanced picture. Accordingly, Trump has 46 percent approval, Haley has 44 percent approval. DeSantis also comes in at 6. Both polls were taken before DeSantis gave up. The crucial question now is who his sympathizers will switch to.
Trump has a clear advantage. Not just because DeSantis made an election recommendation for him. In terms of content, both programs also overlap, for example when it comes to sealing off the southern border or when it comes to foreign policy, when it comes to their critical stance towards European allies. For Haley to catch up with Trump, well over half of DeSantis voters would have to switch to her. But that is more than unlikely. One thing is clear above all: Even where his opponent is strongest, Trump is the favorite in the race.
Biden also helps Haley more
If Haley doesn’t even win in New Hampshire, her candidacy is as good as over. After that it will be: “If she can’t make it there, she won’t make it anywhere.” Such narratives are deadly and difficult to spin. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if she quits after a loss in New Hampshire. It is also possible that she will continue until the next date in South Carolina on February 3rd. After all, she has financially strong supporters and could afford to continue running commercials and organizing campaign appointments. South Carolina is her home, where she was once governor. However, the state is Trump country, and the 77-year-old is miles in the lead there too. Just like in virtually every other state.
If you will, Haley has also lost her most important ally – Joe Biden. Initially, she was able to present herself as the candidate who could beat the Democrat, in contrast to Trump. As a moderate woman close to the political center, she appealed to the few swing voters who can decide elections. The argument against Trump was that he is so hated by large parts of the electorate, especially the Democrats, that he is actually driving them to the polls. It got to the point where Trump was seen as the only candidate Biden could beat. But the 80-year-old president now seems so doddering that his popularity ratings are stuck in the basement. In the meantime, tactically thinking voters can also come to the conclusion: Even Trump can beat Biden.
Another argument against Haley is that there is simply no mood among Republicans for change. The majority of Republican voters believe Trump’s lies, that he is being politically persecuted and that the last presidential election was not clean. Even if you added up the votes of Trump’s opponents, they only achieved as many percentage points as he did – if at all. In addition, there were two important candidates among the challengers, DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, who were more Trump’s model students than tough opponents. Both ultimately recommended voting for the ex-president.
Did you take off your kid gloves too late?
From the start, only the largely unsuccessful Chris Christie, once governor of New Jersey and later a Trump adviser, was explicitly against Trump. Haley remained cautious for a long time and avoided a frontal attack. This was due to their strategically difficult situation. She was competing for the votes of those who had voted for Trump several times. Attacks on Trump could easily be understood as attacks on these same voters. The strategy of overtaking the leader without attacking him ultimately didn’t work.
Only in the last few meters does Haley take off her kid gloves and take jabs at Trump. She accused him of throwing out the money as president “like a Democrat.” Because he confused her with Democrat Nancy Pelosi, she questioned his mental fitness over the weekend. But such slips of the tongue from Trump are unlikely to cause his supporters to do much more than shrug their shoulders. They’ve been used to something like this for years.
Haley does have a good saying: “May the best woman win,” she said at a recent campaign speech. But a win in New Hampshire would be a big surprise. But after the election is before the election: If the Republicans are looking for a presidential candidate again in four years – assuming Trump does not establish a dictatorship, as is being seriously discussed – the 45-year-old DeSantis and Haley, who is seven years older, are likely to apply again. They have now gained experience and, above all, increased their level of awareness. In any case, DeSantis left the back door wide open for him to run again. He said goodbye with a quote from Winston Churchill: “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: what counts is the courage to continue.” A saying that Haley could also cling to.