President Zelensky’s visit to Washington was logical. Congress has just approved major aid to Ukraine well into next year. But support will become more uncertain from next year. Europeans should be ready to step in if necessary.
President Zelensky’s appearance in the US Congress was a triumph, but he cannot be sure of long-term support.
Shortly before Christmas, the Biden administration managed to secure its financing until next September. To do this, she used her last chance before the Republicans took over the majority in the House of Representatives in January – with the intention of blocking everything the Democratic administration could put before them.
This success of the Democrats is controversial. On the negative side, there is an 8 percent increase in spending compared to the previous year. This is not very suitable for combating persistent domestic inflationary pressures. Contrary to all protestations, the special interests of important voter and lobby groups are closer to most politicians than monetary stability. There is little difference between Republicans and Democrats.
The senators ensure stability
For international observers in particular, who do not have to contribute to the financing of the American state, one part of the spending law is on the positive side: the new $45 billion support package for Ukraine. The financing of economic aid, weapons and ammunition deliveries is thus secured until the end of next summer. Without this law, aid to Ukraine in the new year would have quickly become a pawn in domestic political struggles, with the risk of dangerous delays and uncertainties for the Ukrainian soldiers at the front.
It is true that large sections of both the Democrats and the Republicans stand behind the generous support of the White House for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invaders. This is reflected in the significant 68:29 vote on the bill in the Senate, where Democrats have just 50 seats. Many Republican senators have taken their leader, Mitch McConnell’s, vote to heart: “The most important reason for Ukraine’s continued support in its victorious defense against the Russian invaders is hard, practical American interests.”
McConnell is right. US aid to Ukraine, which is approaching $100 billion in total, is money well invested. The defeats and massive losses suffered by the Russian army at the front reduce Putin’s potential threat to peace and prosperity in the US and Europe. Nowhere else could such a sum achieve such high effects.
The unit will become more fragile
It is impressive how broadly this insight has so far prevailed in the otherwise so polarized American federal policy. But it’s uncertain how that unit will pan out over the next year given the narrow Republican majority and pressure from national conservative Trump supporters in the House of Representatives. Aid to Ukraine is likely to be more controversial in the future and more often used as collateral for political concessions.
That’s one more reason for Europe not to lean too comfortably on the US. The fact that President Zelensky has made his first foreign trip to Washington since the Russian attack on February 24 is a logical consequence of the great American support, without which Ukraine would be very different today. But actually this trip is a disgrace for Europe.
A look at the map shows that Selenski’s natural allies should be in Berlin, Brussels or Paris. But because much less aid flows from there to Ukraine, he had to make the long journey to Washington. It is high time that the Europeans moved to the fore in Zelensky’s travel plans. Because what is right for the USA is even more true for them: They have the greatest self-interest in having a powerful Ukrainian army repel Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.