Despite an unsuccessful uprising
Wagner mercenaries continue to operate
7/15/2023 8:53 am
Due to the uprising of his mercenaries, Wagner boss Prigozhin falls out of favor with Putin. However, the organization’s business in Africa continues as usual. Investigative journalists assume that the troops will continue to work for Moscow in the future.
After the near-coup in Russia, which was noted around the world, she was almost declared dead. But the Wagner mercenary army of billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin is alive. Just a few days after the uprising, President Vladimir Putin received his ex-confidant Prigozhin and his commanders in the Kremlin and apparently discussed the future of the troops active in the war in Ukraine, Syria and Africa. In the meantime, Wagner people, whom Putin called “traitors” during the uprising on June 24, are acting with impunity and almost as if nothing had happened. The Wagner fighters are now officially deployed in Belarus as military trainers for the ruler and Putin’s protégé Alexander Lukashenko.
In Russia, Kremlin chief Putin wants to ensure order in view of the proliferation of what are now 40 voluntary combat units. Parliament should create a legal basis for them – an undertaking that has failed in the past. Prigozhin always refused. Russian state media showed raids against Prigozhin’s companies in St. Petersburg and status symbols such as gold bars, bundles of money and medals from Russia and from Wagner’s operations in Africa. For days it looked as if Prigozhin and his Concord corporate empire would soon be history. But he stays in business.
Gold and diamonds for Moscow
Prigozhin earned billions from supplying the military with provisions and always invested part of the profits in his operations in Africa, for example. For weeks, investigative journalists from the Russian unveiling platform Dossier.Center of Putin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky have been observing in his exile in London how Prigozhin’s plane is touring between Africa, Russia and Belarus. Dossier.Center relies on its own informants in the Wagner ranks, according to which Prigozhin himself remains in St. Petersburg and acts from there. The 62-year-old has ordered himself and his Wagner team to take a break until the beginning of August. But immediately after the uprising, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that Moscow would not give up its interests in Africa.
While in Syria, according to analyzes by Dossier.Center, Russia’s Defense Ministry is likely to take over control completely, Prigozhin is said to continue to control the Kremlin’s business in Africa. “The military presence in the African states remains in the geopolitical interest of the Kremlin,” according to Dossier.Center. In the end, Prigozhin could emerge as the victor who not only saved his life but also the hard core of his mercenaries. “The Wagner brand he founded will live on for the time being.”
Prigozhin’s empire stretches particularly far on the African continent: Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Madagascar and Sudan are among the countries that Wagner supplied with mercenaries or disinformation experts, for example. In return, there are commodities – including gold and diamonds. It was also assumed that Russia used this to fill its war coffers. The Central African Republic and Mali, where more than 1,000 mercenaries are said to be deployed, are particularly dependent on Wagner. The states overrun by rebels and terrorists rely on the Russians, even if that means a break with Western partners or even the United Nations.
2000 Wagner fighters in Syria
In the Central African capital of Bangui there is a memorial to the mercenaries who are repeatedly accused of war crimes. They keep rebels in check and control parts of the economy worth billions. The continuation of the deal is vital for the governments. Details are secondary. “Russia gave us Wagner, the rest is none of our business,” a presidential adviser to the Central African Republic told the New York Times. A high-ranking Wagner representative in the country also stated in a statement that support for Central Africa would not end. Several flights between Mali and Russia are said to have only been normal rotations.
“As the turbulent period of talks between Putin and Prigozhin appears to be abating, Wagner’s operations in Africa are likely to continue without major changes,” said Mucahid Durmaz, a West Africa expert at security consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. “Even in the unlikely event of Wagner’s dissolution, Russia will be able to offer its client countries alternative private military companies.”
Governments risked becoming too dependent on the mercenaries. The power struggle could also have an impact on Russia’s strategic support in Africa: “The mutiny will also undermine Putin’s image of the charismatic strong man that Russia aggressively promoted in its engagement on the continent.”
In Syria, Wagner stood for the closeness to the Russian state. The Wagner mercenaries have been officially active in Syria since 2015. There they fight with the Russian military on the side of Syria’s ruler Bashar al-Assad – also to protect oil fields for the regime. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, around 2,000 mercenaries are currently stationed in the civil war-torn country.
The Prigozhin uprising provoked direct reactions in Syria. The Wagner force there had been warned that activities on the ground would be followed by airstrikes by the Syrian and Russian military, activists at the London-based observatory said. The mercenaries were given the choice of joining the Russian troops or leaving the country.
Their role in Syria is rather limited, said political analyst Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center. Their strength in Syria is primarily their “presumed proximity to the (Russian) state”. The break with the state will certainly affect their role in Syria, Ali said. Along with Iran, Russia is the closest ally of the leadership in Damascus in the Syrian civil war. Not least thanks to the Russian military operation, Assad’s supporters once again control around two-thirds of the country.