Despite inflation, the conservatives stand by Erdogan

Konya’s success story is already obvious when landing in the Central Anatolian city. The plane flies over production facilities and warehouses for several minutes before finally touching down on the runway. While in many Turkish cities fallow land follows the last blocks of flats on the outskirts, Konya’s extensive industrial and commercial areas bear witness to dynamic economic life.

Economic and spiritual center

Like Kayseri or Gaziantep, Konya is one of the so-called Anatolian tigers, those cities in the heart of Turkey that benefited particularly from the tremendous economic upswing in the early years of Erdogan’s AKP rule. The driving force was and is an export-oriented medium-sized company.

With companies like the British group Unilever, which first opened a large ice cream factory and later a factory for hygiene products in Konya, there is also an international presence. Goods with a total value of 3 billion dollars were exported from Konya to all over the world last year.

However, the city is not only an important production site in Turkey, but also a center of spiritual life. In Konya lies the tomb of the Persian poet and Sufi mystic Rumi, which is still an Islamic pilgrimage site today.

The whirling dervishes, which were very influential under Atatürk until their order was dissolved and are still known today as a tourist attraction, also go back to Rumi. The headquarters of the brotherhood was in Konya. Socially, the city has always been religiously conservative. Most women wear headscarves.

Hospitals, Autobahn, express train

All of this makes the city of 2 million a stronghold of Erdogan’s national-religious Justice and Development Party (AKP). In the 2018 parliamentary elections, 60 percent of residents voted for the party. In the presidential elections taking place at the same time, Erdogan even received 75 percent of all votes in Konya.

“I’ve always voted for the AKP,” says Serpil Isik, who runs a pottery shop within sight of Rumi’s mausoleum. “We owe the government a lot. Take a look at our modern hospitals. We have new motorways and a connection to the high-speed network,” says Isik. The capital Ankara, almost 300 kilometers away, can be reached in less than two hours.

However, the woman in her late forties does not deny that the country is in a serious crisis. The businesswoman also wears her winter coat in the shop. Unlike the headscarf, this has no religious reasons. Like most places we visit, their pottery shop is barely heated. The restaurant where we later have lunch is also cold. The power-guzzling radiant heaters are not turned on for two guests.

Multiple incomes are needed to survive

The government has drastically increased electricity and gas prices for the new year. For business customers, electricity costs have risen by 125 percent in one fell swoop. The war in Ukraine has only exacerbated the situation.

“I don’t know how other people make ends meet,” says Isik. “We live as a big family. My husband has two jobs, I run the store, and two of our sons are employed. And my parents get a pension. That is how it goes. But with just one salary, it’s very difficult at the moment.”

The dramatic inflation is an ongoing issue in Turkey. According to official data, prices in February were almost 55 percent higher than a year ago. Independent studies even assume more than a doubling. The increase in the minimum wage, which half of all employees in the country earn, does not compensate for this. In Konya, too, many industrial workers earn only 4,250 lira (265 francs) per month.

Conservative Achievements

The government promises relief. Value-added tax on staple foods was reduced, and progression in electricity costs was tightened. However, it cannot compensate for the massive loss of prosperity. The other pillar of its popularity is all the more important for the government: the ideological support in the conservative parts of the country.

“Of course the situation is difficult,” says Cemal Kaya, who runs a bakal, a small grocery store, on Konya’s pedestrian zone. “In November I paid 1,800 lira for the electricity bill, now it’s 4,500. But energy prices are not only rising in Turkey.”

Despite the inflation, Kaya sticks with the AKP. He fears that if the opposition wins next year’s elections, the socio-political reforms of the AKP era would be reversed. “I want my daughter to be able to go to university wearing a headscarf.”

The image of Erdogan’s reign is characterized by the rule of law setbacks and the increasing ideologization of recent years. It is forgotten that the AKP has also brought about social emancipation for conservative Turks by softening rigid secular principles such as the strict ban on headscarves in public buildings.

“I still remember what it was like when the others were in power,” says Kaya, referring to the secular opposition. “I don’t want to go back there.” The government, which poses as the sole protector of religious values, is managing these concerns by fomenting a constant culture war.

distrust of the opposition

The opposition knows that too. Late last year, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) gave a widely acclaimed speech in parliament asking for forgiveness for past injustices. According to the message, there will be no secular counter-revolution after a change of power.

Nevertheless, the distrust is great. The question of which top candidate can win the most swing voters with the united opposition has been the subject of heated debate for weeks. Kilicdaroglu is a shrewd strategist who has been skilfully directing the election campaign so far. As a representative of the secular establishment, which also belongs to the Alevi religious minority, he still has a difficult time in conservative parts of the country.

“A different profile is needed to persuade Erdogan voters,” says Süleyman Akin, a building contractor in Konya. “Mansur Yavas, for example, would also be successful here.” The mayor of Ankara used to belong to a nationalist party and is also popular in the right-wing camp. His counterpart from Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, scores with his religiosity in conservative circles.

Both CHP politicians get better ratings in polls than party leader Kilicdaroglu. However, the candidacy of an incumbent mayor in the presidential election would mean that the city would again come under the control of the AKP, since the candidate would have to leave office and the successor would be chosen by the city council, in which the AKP has a majority. The candidate question will give much to talk about in opposition circles.

Religious, but dissatisfied with Erdogan

“For conservative citizens, it’s definitely a good sign that we’re sitting at the table,” says Ahmet Arslan. The entrepreneur heads the local section of the Gelecek Partisi (Future Party) in Konya.

The party is one of two new parties founded by disenchanted AKP supporters in recent years. Its chairman, Ahmet Davutoglu, was foreign minister and prime minister under Erdogan for many years. The party is part of an alliance of six opposition forces that has been working on a common strategy for the election campaign since last fall.

The target audience of the Gelecek Partisi are religious voters who are disappointed with the AKP’s course in recent years. The party has some weight in Konya, mainly because party leader Davutoglu is from the city. In nationwide polls, however, it only gets 1 to 2 percent of the votes.

The importance of the young religious conservative party for the opposition alliance is limited. The rifts between secular and conservative circles also remain deep. Nevertheless, local politician Arslan believes that other issues will be decisive in the elections, quoting former head of state Süleyman Demirel: “No government can stand up to empty cooking pots.”