The new virus variant has also caught on in Switzerland. The Science Task Force expects 20,000 new infections per day in January.
Despite the high number of cases and precarious conditions in the intensive care units, the exchange of patients between the hospitals seems to continue to function.
The omicron wave has been clearly visible since Christmas. The Ticino canton doctor Giorgio Merlani was the first to report that the new variant of the coronavirus is now dominating epidemiological events in his canton. On Tuesday, the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), the scientific task force and the cantonal doctors spoke up.
In front of the media in Bern, Patrick Mathys, head of the crisis management section in the BAG, explained that Omikron was already responsible for half of all new corona cases and that it was spreading extremely quickly. The level of knowledge regarding the new variant has not improved, but the hypotheses have been substantiated, said Mathys. But there are still many uncertainties, especially when it comes to the course of the disease.
Rapid spread could place a greater burden on hospitals
Reliable statements, including data from Switzerland, are available on the transferability of Omikron:
- Due to the so-called immune evasion, the omicron spreads much faster. The new variant is therefore able to partially bypass the immune system.
- Anyone who has been infected with Omikron can infect other people much earlier than with Delta.
- According to observations in Switzerland, the doubling of new infections with the Omikron variant is between three and five days.
According to Mathys, the mild course of the disease also has to do with the previous immunization of large parts of the population, i.e. with the many vaccinated and recovered people. The uncertainties are still great.
The decisive factor for the burden on society and the healthcare system is not how virulent, but how infectious the virus is, Mathys explained his discomfort before the first rumble of the Omicron wave. In other words: the faster spread of the variant could become more uncomfortable for the population, for the critical infrastructures and especially for the hospitals than a stronger effect.
Task force scenarios
The bare figures also show that the brief calm before the storm is over: the BAG reported a total of 13,376 new infections on Tuesday. The seven-day average increases by 11 percent compared to the previous week. 124 people had to go to hospital because of a more severe course, 334 Covid 19 sufferers are in intensive care. 17 people have died in connection with the coronavirus.
The new wave builds up inexorably. It is to be expected that the numbers will now rise rapidly, said Mathys, as well as the pressure on the hospitals: “The situation is extremely unfavorable. It is to be expected that there will be a tightening », this is how the BAG representative judged the further development of the situation in front of the media.
The head of the Science Task Force, Tanja Stadler, used scenarios to show how the number of cases could develop up to January. She recalled that the Omikron variant was only observed for the first time in Switzerland five weeks ago. There are now more cases of this than of the delta variant, the dynamics of which, nota bene, only began to improve a few days ago.
In all scenarios of the task force case numbers of 20,000 per day in January are plausible. According to Stadler, whether this somewhat more optimistic possibility actually represents the determining development compared to the first scenarios depends on the effectiveness of the measures that the Federal Council decided on December 18. The stricter application of the certificate and the home office obligation would therefore have to reduce Delta’s numbers quickly – and at least slow down Omikron a little.
Israel’s Prime Minister believes the storm is unstoppable
The new variant also seeks its way through the immune system of people who have been vaccinated twice and those who have recovered much better than its predecessor. According to federal and cantonal experts, only the booster counteracts immune evasion. The Task Force Leader Stadler expects the following consequences of the Omikron wave in the next few weeks:
- A large number of people are sick at the same time, sometimes with severe disease.
- The pressure on hospitals and the other critical infrastructures is increasing.
- There is an uncertainty as to how Omikron will behave in relation to the Long Covid phenomenon.
Stadler concluded her remarks with a meaningful note to the authorities, businesses and the population: “Use the coming days for good protection concepts.”
Omikron seems to be changing the nature of the pandemic. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said according to the Daily newspaper «Haaretz»: “We can no longer stop the storm.” The German virologist Christian Drosten mentioned what that could mean in the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” almost by the way, when he said that Omikron was the virus variant “that will accompany us into the endemic phase”.
Appeal to reduce contacts independently
The super wave that is looming would be the beginning of the end. Because endemic would no longer be pandemic. The virus would be in a limited part of the population, but would no longer affect it as a whole. To put it a little less nicely: Omikron has the potential to infect the population.
He’s really reluctant to use the word, said BAG representative Mathys on Tuesday. In theory this would be possible, but it doesn’t work in practice. Mathys pointed out a possible overload, especially in the hospitals: “We can’t just let Omikron run.”
Meanwhile, the canton of Lucerne is preparing for a triage of hospitals. In Central Switzerland, almost all intensive care places are occupied, said Lucerne health director Guido Graf on Tuesday at an emotional media conference. The exchange of patients between the hospitals seems to continue to function, however.
Finally, on Tuesday, the federal experts made an urgent appeal to the population to reduce contacts independently, i.e. without taking any measures. This sounds like the warning to really get off the beach before the high tide, to stick with the metaphor.