PTo get a feel for the intensity of world trade, you just need to take a stroll near Antwerp, in Belgium, one of the most active ports in Europe in this area and the first to welcome automobiles imported from the planet. whole. On its endless quays, tens of thousands of Chinese electric cars await a dealer or a customer. The Old Continent is trying to slow down the flow by launching an anti-dumping investigation. The same goes for solar panels and wind turbines, which arrive by the boatload.
Discords are increasing in the face of the desire for sovereignty which is emerging both in Europe and in the United States. It is in this incandescent context that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has chosen, for its annual economic report, to shine the spotlight on emerging economies, including China, and their links with the rest of the world. History of moderating the protectionist impulses which arise from all sides.
The IMF isolated the ten emerging economies present in the G20 (China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey). The first observation is that of their rise in power. Their share in world trade doubled between 2000 and 2020.
Drive belt
At the same time, the banks of the five richest countries (United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom) have doubled the amount of commitments to finance their integration into world trade. As a result, supply chains are so intertwined that they have become the transmission belt for economic shocks from one country to another.
Thus, according to calculations by IMF economists, the influence of a slowdown in productivity in these countries has three times greater repercussions on the rest of the world than twenty years ago. For example, an economic shock in China explains 10% of the variation in the gross domestic product of other emerging countries. With greater effects for neighboring countries: Russia with Europe and the Middle East, or Mexico with other Latin American countries.
These effects are also measurable with advanced economies. Conclusion of the authors: “Policymakers should refrain from adopting protectionist measures that would penalize their own economies. » This is the difficulty of the moment: the risks of deglobalization. Contain the flow in the port of Antwerp, without losing sight of the advantages of world trade. Explosive subject.