In the face of the snake, Lithuania does not want to be the rabbit. Instead of giving in to Putin’s threats about the partial blockade of Kaliningrad, Vilnius went one better – and restricted the transit of concrete, wood and alcohol. There is no applause for this from Brussels and Berlin.
The situation is muddled. Just two weeks ago it looked as if there would be a face-saving solution for all sides in the dispute over the partial blockade of Kaliningrad. Now, however, Lithuania has implemented the second stage of the EU sanctions package against Russia – apparently without Brussels’ consent. But this is only a solo effort at first glance. The EU Commission had actually announced that it would publish an instruction by July 10 on how to deal with transit traffic between Russia and its exclave on the Baltic Sea. But the deadline passed. And now Lithuania has created facts.
Since Monday, not only the transport of steel, coal and building materials between Russia and Kaliningrad has been restricted, but also concrete, wood and alcohol. The Kremlin sees the action as a violation of an agreement with the EU from 2002 that guaranteed free transit trade with the exclave – and immediately announced “tough countermeasures”. In view of the escalation of the situation, there is suddenly disagreement in the EU itself. The Russian import and export of goods is sanctioned. In the case of Kaliningrad, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not the only one who sees it as a matter of goods traffic between “two parts of Russia”. And it’s allowed to flow.
Lithuania sees it differently. According to the government in Vilnius, where Russian goods touch European soil, the sanctions regime takes effect – and since all Russian goods have to go overland through Lithuania, the EU member feels responsible for implementing the sanctions. But Kaliningrad is not just a question of principles. The centre-right government under Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė will find it difficult to turn back because this would be seen in her own country as giving in to Russian threats. And that would not go down well. The coalition is said to have even made its own survival dependent on it.
“Fears not taken seriously enough”
As a former Soviet republic – and especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – Lithuania has a vital interest in not sending any sign of weakness to the Kremlin. Apparently the EU Commission underestimated that too. All negotiations between Brussels and Vilnius to relax the transit restrictions between Russia and Kaliningrad have so far failed due to resistance from Lithuania. “We have not always taken the prospects and fears of this country as seriously as it should have been,” says the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, SPD politician Michael Roth, in an interview with ntv.de.
Kai-Olaf Lang is an Eastern Europe expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP).
(Photo: SWP)
Even if the intra-Russian trade in goods should not actually be sanctioned in Roth’s opinion, Lithuania apparently fears that Russia could undermine the sanctions regime in Kaliningrad – for example by using the port of the exclave as an export port because the sea routes are not controlled. That is conceivable, says Eastern Europe expert Kai-Olaf Lang from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) when asked by ntv.de. “Kaliningrad is Russia’s only ice-free port on the Baltic Sea.” The argument that Russia can ship sanctioned goods on a large scale through the Suvalki corridor to Kaliningrad and from there abroad is not entirely convincing.
In order to defuse the situation, Lithuania must be persuaded “not necessarily to take a step back, but at least to take a step to the side,” says Lang. “In other words, to allow a little flexibility despite legitimate adherence to principles.” It is conceivable, for example, to allow deliveries to Kaliningrad once if there is a blatant shortage of certain goods in the exclave. It remains questionable whether Vilnius is willing to make such concessions. So far, the prospect of sensitive counter-sanctions has not led to a easing of the dispute. It is true that Lithuania has made itself independent of Russia at great expense over the past few decades. But the historical bond between the two countries has not been completely severed.
Everything is connected
There are still places where the Kremlin can hit Lithuania hard – for example in the power supply. Since the shutdown of its only nuclear power plant, Lithuania has been dependent on electricity imports. Although they no longer come from Belarus and Russia as they used to, the power grid is still synchronized with the BRELL grid from Soviet times. Electricity from the EU grid – for example from Poland – must first be converted. Excluding Lithuania from the BRELL network would be technically possible. However, Lang points out, this could also have direct repercussions in Kaliningrad itself.
The country’s largest railway company, LTG, has also been hit hard by the sanctions. It does a large part of its business in freight transport – almost 40 percent of which is in transit between Russia and Kaliningrad. The punitive measures against Belarus after the manipulated presidential election in 2020 had already hit the Lithuanian state enterprise. LTG alone lost 11 million tons of annual freight via the sanctioned potash producer Belaruskali. The state railway recently announced that it would have to lay off a quarter of its workforce. But Vilnius appear determined to make those sacrifices.
The special session of the State Duma on Friday could be decisive for the further course of the dispute over Kaliningrad. Putin ordered the deputies, who were actually already on their summer break, back to Moscow at short notice. Both in Vilnius and in Brussels, the meeting should be followed with interest. According to one deputy, more than 80 bills are on the agenda. It is quite possible that there is also an answer to Lithuania among them. If that were to happen, the EU would really have to move closer together. One has to be vigilant, Roth warns: “Whenever a dispute breaks out in the EU, there is only one winner in the end – and his name is Putin.”