Lth case of the 13e Florida constituency, located on the west coast of the state and representing the city of St. Petersburg (260,000 inhabitants), illustrates the complex forces at play in the midterm elections, which will take place on November 8. In his time, Donald Trump had won this constituency with an eight percentage point lead. However, today, a few days before D-Day, the local Republican candidate for the House of Representatives, Anna Paulina Luna, has a minimal lead in the polls against the Democratic candidate, Eric Lynn. Indeed, in this year when the Republicans should conquer a comfortable majority in the House and the Senate, its candidates have only a very small lead in many key elections.
However, political experts have long agreed that in 2022 the Democrats will lose their majority in the House and the Senate. Typically, in midterm elections, the president’s party indeed loses a few percentage points in the national results and twenty to twenty-five seats in the House. This trend reflects the waning enthusiasm for the presidential winner, elected two years earlier, and the strong political headwinds he typically faces at this stage of his term.
The year 2022 will not be an exception to this historical trend. The real income of Americans and the popularity of the president are the best indicators of election results; both are now well below average. In the past, Obama and Trump, with similar approval ratings, have lost their majority in the House. Moreover, the inflation rate is at a forty-year high, and real disposable income has stagnated since the start of Biden’s presidency. Given these two indicators, analysts predict that the Republicans could win up to forty seats in the House of Representatives, which would bring their total number of seats to no less than 253, against 182 for the Democrats.
Tight numbers
A few days before the election, however, it seems very unlikely that forty seats will thus pass into the hands of the Republicans. On the side of the Senate, most analysts believe that the two parties have as much chance as the other of winning a majority. Given Biden’s weak approval ratings and the economy, it’s surprising that the numbers for this election are so tight. The difficulties of the democrats can be explained: they are part of a historical trend. Republicans, for their part, fail to capitalize on it. The current campaign is exposing divisions within the party that are preventing it from gaining ground as it did against Obama a decade ago. These problems become clear when we look at the case of the 13e Florida riding.
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