Does the $30,000 act as a stepping stone?

The Bitcoin price can continue to rise after a breather of several weeks and was able to regain the important resistance level of 30,000 US dollars in the last few trading days. Now it is up to the buy side to confirm this breakout in order to target the next upside targets. As pointed out in the last price analysis on March 28th, the continued weakness of the US dollar index DXY is acting as a tailwind for the largest cryptocurrency. The strength in Bitcoin also gave the rest of the crypto market a price boost.

In the slipstream of Bitcoin, the price of the largest altcoin, Ethereum (ETH), was also able to break the sound barrier of 2,000 US dollars and continue to climb north. The statistically bullish trading month of April has lived up to its name so far.

Bitcoin: Bullish price targets for the coming trading weeks

Bullish price targets: $30,656/$31,754 32.403/32.938 $34,748, $35,561, 36,587/37,452 $40,019/$40,851

The Bitcoin price was initially able to end the sideways phase of the last three trading weeks in a bullish manner at the beginning of the week and recapture the resistance at 30,000 US dollars. In the last 24 hours of trading, the BTC price continued to spiral north and hit a new high for the year at $31,050. Bitcoin seems to be increasingly detaching itself from the US stock indices, which impressively illustrates the low correlation of less than 0.3 to the stock index S&P500. The resistance area between $30,656 and $31,754 is now acting as the next hurdle for the buy side.

There are several horizontal resistance lines here as well as the 261 Fibonacci projection of the current up move. In addition, the price-limiting ascending resist line currently runs at US$ 31,164, starting from the high on February 25th. To break this area, the bulls will have to show strength again. Only when Bitcoin also breaks through this zone and reclaims the top of the yellow resistance zone will the next relevant target area between $32,403 and $32,938 come into focus.

Special attention should be paid to the old historical low from January 25, 2022 at $32,938. Increased profit-taking should not come as a surprise. However, as long as Bitcoin does not sustainably fall below the support at $29,902, the buy side will remain in control in the short term. If a sustained breakout above the resistance at $32,938 succeeds in the coming days, the bullish change in market structure would be complete. The Bitcoin price should then target the next target at $34,748.

If Bitcoin also skips this horizontal resist in the coming weeks, the upward movement will expand towards the 361 Fibonacci extension at $35,594. A break above this would take bitcoin to the brown resistance zone between $36,587 and $37,452. This area is taken from the weekly chart. In the first attempt, Bitcoin is likely to fail here. Only when this zone is recaptured by the weekly closing price does the maximum target area come into focus. The old trailing edge from April of the previous year runs between 40,019 US dollars and 40,851 US dollars. In addition, the 461 Fibonacci projection of the current trend movement also acts as a price hurdle.

Bearish bitcoin price targets

Bearish Targets: $29,902, $29,232, 28,506 $27,995/$27,753, $27,238, 26,727/26,553 USD, USD 25,994, USD 25,304/USD 25,000, 24.249/23.931 $23,048

The bears did not use their chance to send Bitcoin into another correction. The seller side should now try to cap the price in the area of ​​31,160 US dollars and ideally not even break out of 30,655 US dollars at the end of the day. Bearish divergences on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts may indicate that today’s breakout may not be sustainable. The declining trading volume also speaks for an initial weakness on the buyer side. If a price reversal succeeds in this zone, the support at 29,902 US dollars will first come into focus.

If Bitcoin falls back below this support, a consistency test of the red breakout zone is likely. The bulls should re-enter the field at the latest at $28,506. The supertrend in the daily chart is currently running just below it. If this is undercut by the daily closing price, this would be a first indication of price weakness. Bitcoin is then likely to drop further to the green support zone between $27,995 and $27,753.

With this, Bitcoin would also have reduced its overbought state from the shorter time units. However, if this area is also abandoned and corrected further south via the intermediate station 27,238 US dollars, there will be a short-term directional decision between 26,727 US dollars and 26,553 US dollars. In addition to the lows from the previous month, the EMA50 (orange) can also be found here. The bulls should definitely defend this area.

If, contrary to expectations, this support zone breaks on a daily close basis, the consolidation will extend to at least $25,994. However, a correction extension to the blue support zone between US$25,304 and US$25,000 would be more likely. This zone has acted as resistance several times in the past and now represents solid support and thus an interesting buying level for the bulls.

A dynamic breach of the support zone would suddenly correct Bitcoin by $1,000 to the last historical low between $24,269 and $23,931. From the current chart perspective, a countermovement on the buyer side is to be expected at the latest.

Looking at the indicators

The RSI shows first signs of weakness in the shorter timeframes. In addition, the RSI is back in the overbought area beyond the 70 level on a daily basis. A course consolidation should therefore not come as a surprise. On the other hand, the MACD indicator has generated a new buy-signal on a daily basis and supports the ongoing trend movement to the north.

In the weekly chart, both the RSI and the MACD indicator continue to show buy signals. However, even in this overriding unit of time, the RSI is slowly overheating with a value of 72. However, this does not mean that the bullish price rally has to come to an end. When the RSI last reached this value in October 2020, the bullish price rally really took off in the following months. A high RSI reading, especially on the weekly chart, simply means that there is a strong trend!

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.92.