Domestic policy is crucial
Social Democrats win first round of elections in Lithuania
October 14, 2024, 3:04 a.m
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In Lithuania there are signs of a change of government: in the parliamentary elections, the opposition is ahead after the counting. As far as relations with Moscow are concerned, the country is likely to stay on the current course.
There are signs of a change of power in the German NATO partner country Lithuania. According to preliminary results, the Social Democrats prevailed in the first round of parliamentary elections. After counting almost all electoral districts, the previously opposition force received 19.5 percent of the votes, as the electoral commission in Vilnius announced last night. Behind them, with 17.8 percent, is Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte’s conservative Fatherland Union, which in the final spurt surpassed Nemunas’ populist Dawn party, which ran for the election for the first time and got 15.0 percent.
Nevertheless, it seems questionable whether Simonyte’s three-party alliance can hold on to power. Of her two liberal coalition partners, only one managed to get over the five percent hurdle. In addition, three other parties could succeed in entering the parliament of the Baltic state, which borders the Russian exclave Kaliningrad and Moscow’s war ally Belarus. The preliminary final result is expected later today. Voter turnout was 52.1 percent – higher than in the election four years ago.
Sunday’s vote was the first of two rounds: voters initially decided on 70 seats in parliament using proportional representation. In two weeks they will then vote on 71 direct mandates in the Seimas parliament. Coalitions are therefore only likely to be discussed after the election. The Social Democrats and the center-left Party for Lithuania have already announced that they want to form a government. To do this, however, they would still need at least one other partner.
“I think our voters, our people, have said that they want some changes,” said Social Democrats leader Vilija Blinkeviciute. Central issues are income, housing, health care and education.
No changes in foreign policy expected
The voting results confirmed pre-election polls that suggested a possible change of government in Lithuania. This would primarily lead to domestic and social policy changes. In terms of foreign and security policy, the Baltic state is likely to remain firmly in line with the EU and NATO and maintain its resolute support for Ukraine.
Lithuania is particularly exposed to the geopolitical confrontation with Russia due to its location on NATO’s eastern flank and also sees Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine as a direct threat to its own security. Germany therefore wants to permanently station a combat-ready brigade with up to 5,000 Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania.