Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Donors meeting in Mar-a-Lago
Biden wants to run, Trump would win
From Roland Peters
US President Biden wants to run for a second term. His predecessor Trump is already diligently preparing for 2024. One of his advisors says that he “absolutely wants a revenge.” Trump currently has excellent prospects of success.
What could a re-election campaign look like? “He can hardly do his job at the moment!”, It said on Monday in a corresponding discussion announcement about US President Joe Biden with the well-known TV presenter Hannity: “Despite his abysmally poor approval ratings” the Democrat wants to run again, but how should he go through an election campaign in his condition? These are the questions the conservative television broadcaster Fox News is trying to attract viewers with. The announcement is paired with a photo of the President that shows him with a cartoon-like twisted mouth. The reason? Biden’s spokeswoman had previously said the president was planning to run for a second term in 2024.
It is common for this to happen. But not at the age the democrat is. After another election victory, Biden would be 82 years old when he took office. Last year, the conservative media had repeatedly made Biden’s supposedly poor health an issue in order to portray him as “unfit for office”. Most recently, Biden did well overall in a health check-up, but showed some deteriorations from last year, including stiffer movements and more frequent coughs.
It is extremely difficult to make predictions about future developments. It cannot be ruled out that the president’s condition will actually deteriorate over the next few years, when Vice President Kamala Harris could try to be the first woman to move into the White House. But it could also turn out quite differently.
Trump works on five states
Whoever runs for the Democrats, many in political Washington firmly believe that the Republican adversary will be called Donald Trump. “Losing is never easy, no, not for me,” Trump said on election day 2020. He never publicly admitted his defeat. The others were and are to blame. The ex-president is currently concentrating on the upcoming mid-term elections, but apparently there is already a first strategy for 2024. “Trump desperately wants revenge against Biden,” an advisor to the ex-president is quoted in the US magazine “Politico”.
In the five states that sealed his defeat, his team is already putting the electorate through its paces, according to the magazine. The results are promising from Trump’s point of view. The ex-president would win relatively clearly against Biden: in Arizona with 8 percent lead, in Georgia with 3 percent, in Michigan with 12 percent, in Pennsylvania with 6 percent and in Wisconsin with 10 percent. “Poll after poll shows that ex-President Trump is still the £ 800 gorilla in the Republican Party and would be its candidate if he ran,” said the senior pollster.
Trump had lost less than 3 percent to Biden in all five states and has never completely stopped campaigning there. He has performed four times since his defeat in these parts of the country and publicly supports dozens of candidates for various offices. Trump would be better prepared now than he was in his successful election in 2016, has his own electoral base and his cosmos of supporting media and campaign organizations that have never stopped collecting money from the population. At the beginning of December there is to be another event for large republican donors in Trump’s golf resort Mar-a-Lago.
The parallel between money spent and election success is great for congressional candidates. It is difficult to establish causality, but the best chances of success have politicians who invest more money than their competitors in the election campaign, noted the US data medium “FiveThirtyEight”. From 2000 to 2016, around 80 percent of the candidates with the highest spending won in the Senate, and more than 90 percent in the House of Representatives. A relationship was also established between the money spent and the percentage of votes cast proven. As of 2010, there have been virtually no restrictions on election funding in the US. The duel between Biden and Trump was the most expensive election campaign of all time.
Regardless of who is competing against whom in 2024, the signs are already not good for Biden for the congressional elections in 2022. Of the seven past mid-term elections, the ruling party lost significantly in five. But looking ahead to 2024, Democrats may be hoping that Republicans will drift far to the right in Congress after winning the elections. That could increase the odds for the Democrats; There was a similar effect in 2020 when Americans voted in record numbers to get rid of Trump.