Where we talk again about expensive, very expensive oil…. The price of a barrel of Brent, produced in the North Sea, crossed the threshold of 130 dollars on Monday morning, to reach a peak at 139.13 dollars, before ebb to around $123. For experts, the outbreak is not about to stop, while Vladimir Putin does not let go of any ballast. Its demands have not changed since the beginning of the conflict: a status neutral and non-nuclear » for Ukraine, his « mandatory demilitarization ” and his ” denazification », and the recognition of the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia.
For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked, in a video released Monday, for Western intervention and called for new sanctions against Russia, including an oil boycott. The idea had already germinated in the minds of American officials. Speaking on NBC on Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the White House has entered into ” very active discussions with [ses] European partners and allies to consider a coordinated way to block Russian oil imports while ensuring that supplies in the global oil market remain adequate. The Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is expected to propose passing a law banning imports of Russian gas into the United States. Gas prices have also reached a new record in Amsterdam at 345 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) before returning to around 216 euros this evening.
Towards a barrel at 150 dollars? $200?
” Cutting off from Russian oil will put further upward pressure on crude prices and could propel the price per barrel above $150 in the near future “, underlines Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote. US investment bank JPMorgan Chase says the global benchmark could end the year at $185 a barrel if Russian supplies continue to be disrupted, while a hedge fund has pointed out that a $200 barrel is become a possibility. ” The continued rally in oil and commodities should push European economies to ration their consumption and weigh on the economic recovery and corporate results in 2022 “warns Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
If the Cac 40, down 5% at the worst of the morning, gradually raised the bar from the start of the afternoon, going as far as gaining almost 1%, it is because Ukrainian negotiators and Russians are preparing to begin a third round of talks in the face of an increasingly desperate humanitarian situation. The trend also benefited from the statements of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said he was opposed to a possible embargo on Russian oil imports, recalling that they are (along with gas) ” of essential importance for European economies. It nevertheless ends down 1.31%, at 5,982.27 points.
As is often the case during high volatility sessions, the trading volume was particularly high at 8.2 billion euros. Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones lost 1.59% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.77%.
The ounce of gold reaches 2,000 dollars
In this context, safe havens continued to play their role to the full. The ounce of gold crossed the threshold of 2,000 dollars for the first time since August 2020, before returning below this bar later in the day, the Swiss franc briefly rose above the parity of 1 for 1 with the euro, a first since 2015. Faced with soaring prices, what will be the attitude of central banks? The US Federal Reserve, like its eurozone counterpart, will be forced to adjust its plans.
” Faced with the risk of stagflation in Europe (slowdown in growth coupled with an increase in inflation), the ECB should in fact postpone until 2023 the rate hikes planned to curb the main risk, that of recession, believes Thibault Prébay, Deputy Managing Director at Financière Arbevel. In the United States, the strength of the economy still justifies raising key rates. Nevertheless, a rate hike of 25 basis points by the Fed in March (and not 50 basis points as previously envisaged) now seems the central scenario, followed by three or four other hikes in 2022 in our opinion, and no longer seven or eight as some banks envisioned. This change of course by central banks could then benefit technology stocks as well as green stocks. »
Banks and cars under pressure
Among securities, the increase in the price of kerosene weighed on airlines, such as Air France-KLM, which dropped 6.1%. The aircraft manufacturer Airbus dropped 3.2%. Heavily exposed to Russia, Renault loses another 5.3% and Societe Generale 4.2%. Conversely, the manufacturer of seamless tubes Vallourec gained 7.4% and the defense electronics group Thales gained 6.6%, thus signing the largest increase within the Cac 40.
Among the companies reviewing their projects in Russia, the agri-food group Danone (-2.3%) announced the suspension of all its investment projects in the country, where it has been established for a long time.
LVMH (-1.7%) and Kering (-3%) have decided to close ” temporary from their outlets in Russia. ” LVMH is undoubtedly the most present group in Russia, with 124 points of sale throughout the country, but this volume must be put into perspective with regard to the size of the group and its multiple activities. », Analyzes the firm Invest Securities. LVMH specified that it will continue to support its Russian staff during this period through various actions, in particular by ensuring that salaries are maintained.