The fight against global warming may well suppose to do without fossil fuels, the world demand for oil has started again. It is even heading towards a record level in 2023, at 102.3 million barrels per day (mbd) on average, according to monthly projections, updated in June, by the International Energy Agency (IEA). If confirmed, this total will exceed that of 2019, which already exceeded 100 mbd daily.
The parenthesis linked to Covid-19 is closing with force. The pandemic had caused consumption to fall to 91.7 mbd in 2020, before rebounding in 2021 (97.5 mbd) then in 2022 (99.8 mbd). Without the slowdown due to the health crisis, “the historic level expected for the current year would have been reached as early as 2021”observes Guy Maisonnier, economist engineer at IFP Energies nouvelles (Ifpen, former French Petroleum Institute).
“This upward spiral in demand shows the impressive inertia of the system. We are still in the era of hydrocarbons”abounds Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, director of the energy & climate center of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
An unprecedented level of demand
So-called emerging countries are driving demand. Starting with China, the world’s leading importer of “black gold” and the second largest consumer behind the United States. In April, the leading Asian power recorded an unprecedented level of oil demand, of the order of 16.3 mbd, which is explained by various uses of petroleum products, in particular as fuel for transport but also as a petrochemical product.
India is not to be outdone, with 5.5 mbd expected in total for 2023. The country, now the most populous in the world (ahead of China), has recorded records on its scale for diesel and gasoline in May, according to the IEA.
Conversely, “demand remains sluggish” in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) area, according to the report. Either in the member countries of the European Union, the United States or Japan. The IEA, itself attached to the OECD, attributes this observation to the “context of the current manufacturing crisis”. In Europe, oil demand for 2023 is thus expected to be lower than that observed in 2019 (14.9 mbd compared to 15.7). Ditto for North America (24.7 mbd against 25 mbd).
“Not in phase” with climate ambitions
The peak of global demand will occur before the end of the decade, estimates the IEA, with consumption still increasing until 2028, when it will reach 105.7 mbd. “This trend is explained, according to the IEA, by energy efficiency, the penetration of electric vehicles and the replacement of oil for electricity production by natural gas or renewable energies, particularly in the Middle East. »writes Ifpen, in its note of June 19.
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