The Ukraine war and the long-term effects of Corona are not the only reasons for the food crisis. Drought also plays a role.
In several countries, the food situation threatens to deteriorate in the coming months. The war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the corona pandemic are making a significant contribution to this crisis.
But drought also plays an important role – on the one hand where grain is grown for export and on the other hand where poverty and hunger are widespread. East Africa, France, India, Iraq and the western United States were or are affected by drought.
“It worries me,” says climate researcher Sonia Seneviratne from ETH Zurich, who specializes in droughts. For example, it is clear that there could be less grain production than usual in Europe and India.
Livestock are dying in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya
The situation in East Africa is particularly dramatic. This was recently pointed out by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Meteorological Organization and other international organizations in a joint statement there. East Africa has been suffering from an extreme, extensive and persistent drought for several years.
Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are the hardest hit countries. In four consecutive rainy seasons, it rained below average, the statement said. The drought is probably the worst in the past 40 years. In the case of grazing cattle, the number of animals that have died since 2021 is in the millions.
Contributed to the ongoing drought according to the Weltmeteorological organization the phenomenon «La Niña»; this is the irregularly recurring cooling of the tropical Pacific. As in the previous year, the water temperatures in this region were lower than usual in 2022. Several long-distance meteorological effects emanate from La Niña. One of them is reducing rainfall in East Africa.
France is preparing for a drought summer
France, the largest grain producer and exporter in the European Union, has also been plagued by drought since the beginning of the year. From January to March there was around 35 percent less precipitation than usual. April and May were also exceptionally dry.
Seasonal forecasts indicate that the drought will continue in the summer. Particularly serious drought problems could occur in the regions of Provence – Alpes – Côte d’Azur, Auvergne – Rhône – Alpes, Nouvelle Aquitaine, Pays de la Loire and Centre-Val de Loire pointed out the French Ministry of Ecological Transition in mid-May.
The situation in India improves with the monsoon
After a drought in the first few months of the year, which was at times associated with extremely high temperatures, crop failures in India are already foreseeable. That is why the government in Delhi has decided to restrict wheat exports as a precautionary measure.
In the meantime, however, the situation in India has improved. The monsoon started earlier than usual. According to seasonal forecasts, at least average monsoon rain is expected. As a result, the agricultural situation should also ease up again.
Water shortage exposes a 3,400-year-old city in Iraq
Iraq already has to import grain anyway, and the country also suffered from a severe drought last year. As it continues, several dust storms have darkened the skies in recent months. This is causing considerable problems for the agricultural economy.
The political constellation further exacerbates the water shortage. The large rivers Euphrates and Tigris are dammed in the upper reaches of Iran and Turkey. Correspondingly less water is left for Iraq.
In order to save agriculture in the south, water reservoirs had to be tapped in recent months. The level in the Mosul reservoir dropped significantly. That has led to large parts of the remains of a 3400 year old city were uncovered. Archaeologists rushed to take advantage of this situation to study the ruins.
The drought in the western United States continues
California and many other western American states have been experiencing extreme drought since the turn of the millennium. Experts have long been talking about a mega drought because of the duration. The conditions don’t look any better this year.
In the western United States, too, La Niña favors the lack of precipitation. As the drought affects many of the heavy grain producing states like Kansas, the drought will affect the country’s ability to export grain.
What role does climate change play?
Droughts are part of natural weather patterns. But man-made climate change is having an increasing impact on it. According to ETH researcher Seneviratne, land areas around the world become increasingly dry during the driest months. This is due to the fact that evaporation increases due to the increase in radiation and temperature. Some regions are more affected by this development than others – including the Mediterranean region, for example. However, a tendency towards drying out can also be observed in western central Europe.
The latest report by the UN Climate Council showed that as warming progresses, the risk of droughts occurring in different regions of the world at the same time increases. That would also pose a risk to food security, says Seneviratne. If then an additional factor such as a war is added, a crisis occurs even faster.