Droughts fuel the conflict: In Mali, the Bundeswehr is losing to climate change

Droughts fuel the conflict
In Mali, the Bundeswehr is losing to climate change

From Clara Suchy

Mali is considered the most dangerous deployment of the Bundeswehr – it has been there as part of the UN mission since 2013. But the latest attacks on Bundeswehr soldiers show that stability in the country is not yet assured. That may be because one cause of the conflict is climate change.

Syria is probably the best-known example: droughts and crop failures forced people to move from rural areas to cities. Poverty and lack of resources in the now overcrowded cities contributed to existing social tensions – and ultimately to the outbreak of war. This is not the only example, and it will not be the last either. Climate change exacerbates conflicts. And he is already the focus of a Bundeswehr mission in Mali.

The Bundeswehr has been deployed in Mali for eight years. With 13,000 blue helmet soldiers and almost 2,000 police officers, the UN mission “Minusma” is supposed to help ensure political stability in the West African country. After the Afghanistan mission, which has now ended, the Mali mission is the Bundeswehr’s second most expensive mission – in 2019, the Defense Ministry’s annual report included costs of 286 million euros called. And: It is considered the most dangerous deployment of the Bundeswehr. The attack on the German armed forces in June of this year showed what many had already suspected: Almost a decade does not seem to have made significant progress in the country’s stability. This could be because the UN mandate is only addressing the symptoms and not the cause of the conflict.

As in Syria, climate change plays an important role in fueling the conflict. Mali is by no means the only UN mission in which this is the case. Investigations of the Stockholm peace research institute SIPRI show that ten of the 21 ongoing UN peace missions take place in countries that are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. In addition, six of the largest missions are in countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change – 80 percent of the UN troops are stationed in these countries. The study’s researchers see climate change as one of the main drivers of these wars and conflicts.

Mali and the Sahel Zone: A Climate Disaster

The effects are particularly noticeable in Mali, as climate change has already hit the country hard: the average annual temperature in Mali has been around 0.7 degrees since 1960 gone up. Between 2000 and 2009 there was 12 percent less rainfall than in the previous century. Major “crises of the century” such as droughts or floods have occurred five times in 20 years. Studies show that temperatures could rise by up to 3.6 degrees over the next 40 years. Heat waves will last longer, cold spells will be shorter. In any case, the Sahel zone, in which Mali is located, is one of the regions in the world most at risk from climate change.

Droughts and floods are fatal for every country – in Germany, the consequences of the floods in the Ahr valley will be felt for years to come. But in Mali such events affect the daily livelihood of many people. Around 35 percent of the gross domestic product are generated in agriculture. 80 percent of employed people are employed in this sector. If the rains come too early or too late, there will be a drought one year and a flood the next. All of this has an impact on the daily life of farmers and shepherds in Mali.

This alone leads to economic difficulties for a large part of the population. But crop failures do not necessarily lead to conflicts. In Syria, too, the droughts were not solely responsible for the war. There was also great political discontent – the Syrian regime did not take the concerns of its citizens seriously. In Mali, on the other hand, droughts, floods and temperature fluctuations are forcing the shepherds to change their previous hiking routes. So you come into contact with farmers who have not previously had to share their resources. “And that leads to conflicts,” says Farah Hegazi, a researcher at SIPRI.

Climate change and extremism

What a dwindling livelihood can mean for Malian farmers plays into the hands of extremist groups. The north of Mali in particular served terrorists from Libya and Algeria as a retreat for a long time. Much more important for the spread of these groups, however, was the dissatisfaction of the local people. And that is closely related to the consequences of climate change.

Mali is one of the poorest countries in the world. Unemployment and the poverty rate, especially among young people, are very high. A quarter of the families does not have secure access to food. Added to this is the rapid population growth: the Malian population increases by three percent every year. Not only does climate change lead to a lack of resources, but also rapid population growth leads to a shortage of important resources such as land, says Hegazi.

And that in turn puts pressure on the largest industry: agriculture. So people are looking for an alternative. “When people have no income, it is easier for them to join armed groups,” says Hegazi. “That’s a source of income for them.”

The war in Mali is therefore a complex conflict that is not only influenced by climate change. “It would be wrong to speak of a climate war,” says Hegazi. “But what we can already say: Climate change is making the situation worse.”

Are there already climate wars?

It is undisputed in research that climate change can exacerbate conflicts. Alexander De Juan, Professor of Comparative Political Science at the University of Osnabrück, has examined how environmental conditions influence conflicts. His result: There is a clear correlation between the likelihood and intensity of outbreaks of violence and the availability of water and fertile land. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also writes in its latest report that climate change will intensify the fight for dwindling resources.

Whether one can speak of “climate wars” is controversial. Because often, as in Mali and also in Syria, there is no direct connection between the consequences of climate change and the conflict. There are many intermediate steps such as migration or political dissatisfaction that also contribute to the cause of the war.

One thing is clear, however: the Bundeswehr is currently investing hundreds of millions of euros in the stability of a country that is severely affected by climate change and will be even more affected in the future. While the UN mandate sees the fight against climate change as an important aspect of the work on the ground, it only calls on the Malian government and the United Nations to develop “strategies for assessing and managing the risks” related to climate change. “The objectives of the mandate are clearly formulated,” says Hegazi. “The fight against the consequences of climate change is not part of it at all.” And that, according to the researcher, will have to change in the future.

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