Ihere is an existential danger that dominates all the others: the worsening of climate change and the destruction of biodiversity. Climate change stems from radical uncertainty, both to prevent financial risks and to control transition risks, because climatic phenomena are both non-linear and irreversible when planetary boundaries are crossed. Strategic planning is therefore an essential step, basing a social pact on a higher principle of preserving the viability and permanence of societies.
In his report ” Sustainability! Orchestrate and plan public action », France Stratégie questions the institutional arrangements capable of supporting this new social contract. Planning must ensure the coherence and articulation of sectoral policies and the different levels of public action. To guarantee long-term continuity against the biases of short-termism, France Strategy recommends that the orchestration proceed from a public entity reporting to the head of government, in order to benefit from the political weight of the central authority.
But ecological planning must also have a financial instrument: the double valuation of carbon, which establishes a bonus-malus system intended as much to encourage as to protect. Because it is necessary to distinguish two complementary modes of valorization by the public power. First, the price of carbon incorporated into polluting goods on the markets to discourage consumption (malus). It must rise gradually to regulate the risk of transition. Then, the price of avoided carbon (bonus), which is a fictitious price and makes it possible to set a “social value of emission reduction”. It should reach 100 euros per tonne to encourage companies to invest in reducing their emissions by guaranteeing a return on projected investments approaching the marginal social return of the carbon abatement, i.e. the value that society will grant 1 ton of carbon avoided in 2050 (carbon neutrality). This is why the dual valuation must be politically conducted so that the two prices converge to carbon neutrality.
Ambitious proposals
But this will not be enough to rule out “greenwashing”, as companies can still declare emission reduction projects that have not been followed by effects. Independent experts must therefore be able to measure the quantity of carbon actually reduced by an investment. This enables the company to be issued with a “carbon certificate”, measuring the monetary value of the proceeds of the investment. The transmission of the certificate to the bank which granted the credit reimburses the part of the credit devoted to carbon reduction.
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