E-car share is probably stagnating
Forecast: 2022 Big increase in new registrations
2/9/2022 2:29 p.m
After the pandemic and supply bottlenecks hit the automotive industry in 2021, their association is optimistic about the current year. Around seven percent more new registrations are expected. The share of plug-in hybrids and electric cars is stagnating.
The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) expects more than 2.8 million new passenger car registrations in Germany in 2022. This would mean around seven percent more new cars on the streets than in 2021, as announced by association president Hildegard Müller. Last year, 2.62 million passenger cars were newly registered. In particular, delivery bottlenecks in semiconductors had significantly depressed sales.
The association again emphasized that the problems will continue in the current year. “In our estimation, the low point in the supply of semiconductors was in the third quarter of 2021,” said VDA chief economist Manuel Kallweit. “But fundamentally, the semiconductor problem will also accompany us throughout 2022.” This is one of the reasons why the sales forecast for this year is far below the level before the pandemic: In 2019, more than 3.6 million vehicles were newly registered in Germany.
VDA boss Müller therefore called for more speed in setting up European semiconductor and battery production. “If Germany also wants to be the world market leader of the future, then it needs to set up semiconductor factories now,” she said. “Initial plans for the expansion of battery production in Germany and Europe already exist. It is important that the plans are implemented promptly so that the added value for the automotive industry can be maintained in Europe.”
The VDA assumes that around 750,000 cars with alternative drives will be among the new registrations this year. Around half of these are fully electric cars with battery drives. They would thus account for around 13.3 percent of new registrations, which would roughly correspond to the level of the previous year.
Traffic light plans 15 million electric cars by 2030
In view of the goals of the traffic light coalition, this proportion must increase quickly and significantly: the federal government wants to increase the number of vehicles with battery drives to 15 million cars by 2030. In order to do that, “from this year every second car sold must be an electric car,” emphasized VDA boss Müller. “In view of the fact that the charging infrastructure has not yet been developed across the board, we believe that plug-in hybrids are still essential for the successful ramp-up of electromobility.” If you include the plug-in hybrids, which experts assign a significantly poorer climate balance than battery-electric vehicles, the share of alternative drives in new registrations this year would be more than 26 percent and would also be significantly too low.
The environmental protection association BUND also criticized the car industry for continuing to hold on to oversized SUVs and similar models. “With more and more, ever larger and often overpowered vehicles, climate protection is hitting the wall,” said the BUND head of transport policy, Jens Hilgenberg. “In addition to a commitment to the mobility turnaround with fewer cars, the federal government needs a clear commitment to climate protection by changing the drive.” The central instrument for this drive change are CO2 fleet limits. “It is above all this regulation that ensures that the market share of e-cars is steadily increasing.” The federal government must work in Brussels to ensure that the EU Commission tightens the CO2 limits for cars. In addition, the BUND called for the phase-out of the combustion engine to be brought forward from 2035 to 2030.
The Verkehrsclub Deutschland (VCD) made a similar statement. “Climate-damaging subsidies must finally be reduced in the transport sector,” said VCD expert Michael Müller-Görnert. “The company car privilege must be ended, the vehicle tax should be supplemented with a bonus-malus component.” VDA President Müller emphasized that even large premium vehicles have made “enormous leaps” in terms of energy efficiency and CO2 reduction. “I just don’t think we can dictate to the consumer at the end of the day which car he chooses.” A restriction of the industry in this question would lead to losing the connection as a branch worldwide.