easing continues on T-Bonds, weak US co


Deutsche bank is causing a stir in the bond markets with a study which envisages that the final target for the Fed’s key rates will be 5 6% and not 3 35% (currently considered the neutral rate within 9 12 months, with inflation having peaked in March or April 2022 and which should fall back to 4.5/5% at the end of the year then to 3% at the end of the 1st quarter of 2023.

But that did not trouble US investors across the Atlantic: T-Bonds eased -6.5 Pts to 2.7600% while Wall Street fell sharply mid-session with nearly -3% on the Nasdaq, in the wake of Tesla which plunged -11%, the Dow Jones dropped -1.9% to 33,400 Pts.

On the Eurozone side, after Monday’s strong improvement (-9pts on OATs, -7pts on Bunds), the trend remained positive on Tuesday with -1.5pts on Bunds and -0.5pts basis on our OAT 0.8290 % and 1.3140% respectively (this is much worse than in the morning, when returns fell -4% and -3% respectively

Further south, the Italian BTPs erase -5.4 Pts and the Bonos -4 Pts 2.54% and 1.793%.

In terms of indicators, investors took notice of US durable goods orders: they rose 0.8% in March due in particular to an increase in telecommunications equipment and cars, statistics published on Tuesday by the Department show. Trade.

This figure, which follows a contraction of 1.7% in February, is however lower than the expectations of economists, who were aiming for a rebound of between 1.1% and 1.3% last month.

The figure for the past month is mainly due to an increase in orders for computer equipment and electronic products, up 2.6%.
The Department of Commerce announces an 8.6% decline in sales of new homes in the United States in March, ie an annualized CVS volume of 763,000 against 835,000 in February (revised figure).

The median price for US new home sales was $436,700 last month. At 407,000 at the end of March, the stock of new homes ready for sale represented 6.4 months at the current rate of flow.

American consumer confidence deteriorated slightly in April, shows the monthly survey of the Conference Board published on Tuesday.

The confidence index compiled by the employers’ organization fell to 107.3 this month after 107.6 in March, while economists predicted a more marked decline, around 106 points.

The sub-index measuring consumers’ judgment of their current situation fell to 152.6 from 153.8 in March, while that of their expectations rose to 77.2 from 76.7 last month.

The markets had welcomed this morning the surprise decision of the Chinese central bank to reduce by one percentage point the reserve requirement rate for deposits in foreign currencies, which will drop from the current 9% to 8% from May 15.

This decision aims to strengthen the management of liquidity in foreign currencies in financial institutions, explains the People’s Bank of China in a press release.

Beijing has also unveiled a series of guidelines aimed at solving bottlenecks, stimulating consumption and dealing with the impact of the resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic in the country.

Following the presentation of these measures, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index recovered almost 1% the day after a heavy decline (-4%) and the Nikkei of the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended the session with gains of order of 0.6%.
The Yuan continues to decline with a fall of -5% in barely 1 month.

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