Election analysis for “Hard but fair”: Is the traffic light already over?

Election analysis at “Hard but fair”
Has the traffic light come to an end?

By Marko Schlichting

After the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday, the signs there are black and green. Although there have not even been exploratory talks, the guests on Monday evening’s ARD program “Hart aber fair” discussed whether the traffic light government in Berlin could only have a short lifespan.

After the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU wants to hold talks for a new government with all democratic parties. Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst announced this. The CDU clearly won the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, but needs at least one partner to govern. The signs are black and green. With a good 18 percent, the Greens achieved their best result so far in a state election in North Rhine-Westphalia. The old state government made up of CDU and FDP has been voted out because of the high loss of votes for the Liberals.

In addition to black-green and a rather unlikely coalition of CDU and SPD, another government alliance would be possible in the Düsseldorf state parliament. If the CDU failed in its negotiations, the seats would be sufficient for a traffic light. But that would be immoral, according to the criticism from the CDU about corresponding mental games from the SPD. The CDU, the second strongest party after last year’s federal elections, had also held talks with the FDP and the Greens about a possible three-party coalition. According to the CDU, that is something different, because the difference in votes in the federal election was not that great. The federal CDU was apparently much less second in the federal election than the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia.

“Question on forming a government not yet answered”

SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert still sees opportunities for a traffic light in NRW. Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst was the victor in the election, which is why he had to form a new government. But to do that, he would have to get majorities in the state parliament that would bring this government into the country. Kühnert: “Mr. Wüst only has partners who have been in opposition to the CDU in recent years.” There are various points of contention between the Union and the Greens in NRW, says Kühnert – and names the Hambach Forest, the distance rules for wind turbines, a lack of tenant protection or the very high daycare fees. “We have criticized all of that in the last five years, and it’s not gone just because Mr. Wüst got a strong 36 percent,” says Kühnert. The question of who will form the government has not yet been answered. But the SPD must wait and see. “It’s others’ turn first.”

Green boss Omid Nouripour sees “large overlaps in red-green”.

(Photo: WDR/Thomas Kierok)

Green leader Omid Nouripour is also clear that the government negotiations in North Rhine-Westphalia will be difficult. An agreement should now be reached on substantive issues. Then the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia would have to decide. However, Nouripour says: “There is a lot of overlap between red and green.”

“Maybe people were satisfied with politics”

CDU politician Carsten Linnemann does not believe in an end to the traffic light coalition in Berlin. None of the other guests on the show believe it either. In contrast to many journalists, however, he is not sure that the SPD, with its poor election result, received a receipt for Chancellor Scholz’s policies. “Perhaps voters chose the CDU simply because they were satisfied with state politics,” he says. The satisfaction levels for Health Minister Karl-Josef Laumann even increased during the Corona crisis, “You have to do that first,” he says. Interior Minister Herbert Reul fought clan crime, eliminated no-go areas and campaigned for the disappearance of parallel societies. And Prime Minister Wüst himself had an integrative and not polarized effect.

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CDU politician Linnemann is not sure that the SPD, with its poor election result, received a receipt for Chancellor Scholz’s policies.

(Photo: WDR/Thomas Kierok)

Like the other political guests, Linnemann is concerned about the low turnout of just over 55 percent. Kühnert complains that almost half of the voters in North Rhine-Westphalia did not vote for any party. Doing something about it must be in the interest of all parties, says Linnemann.

No HB male as chancellor

When it comes to the traffic light government, Kühnert knows that both Chancellor Scholz and the rest of the coalition still have room for improvement. Scholz is cautious and reserved, he says after moderator Frank Plasberg shows the very excited Chancellor at a May Day demonstration. “But I don’t think that the population wants to be governed by an HB male all the time,” says Kühnert, referring to the Scholz speech. During the election campaign, he met many people who agreed with the chancellor’s cautious policies.

One problem, however, is that since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there has hardly been any discussion of everyday issues. This includes inflation, which affects many people. “That has to change in the next few weeks,” demands Kühnert.

With the fight against inflation, the changes in the energy sector in particular and the war in Ukraine, the traffic light government has to prove itself in three crises at the same time. This will not be easy in the years to come. When it comes to state elections, the SPD knows that it is in a slump at the moment. But Kuehnert soon sees light at the end of the tunnel. Because in the fall, Lower Saxony will vote – with significantly better signs for the Social Democrats.

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