Election winner for independence
USA and Japan congratulate Taiwan – China is outraged
January 14, 2024, 6:00 a.m
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William Lai stands for Taiwan’s independence from China, and with his election the island republic is opting for the status quo. The US emphasizes “common interests and values” and Japan expects a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue. China, on the other hand, is not very amused.
After William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is viewed critically in China, won the election in Taiwan, Western countries congratulated him – but sharp tones came from Beijing. With the election, the Taiwanese people have once again demonstrated the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process, said the US State Department in Washington. We look forward to promoting long-standing unofficial relations in line with the One-China policy. President Joe Biden emphasized that the US does not support Taiwan independence. The so-called Taiwan question repeatedly causes tension between the USA, which is an ally of the island, and China, which counts Taiwan as part of its territory.
Japan also congratulated in a statement on the Japanese Foreign Ministry website. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa said: “We expect the Taiwan issue to be resolved peacefully through dialogue, thereby contributing to peace and stability in the region.” The Chinese embassy described the minister’s statement as “serious interference in China’s internal affairs,” as the authority announced via its official account on the Chinese chat service WeChat.
Lai won 40.05 percent of the vote in Saturday’s presidential election. At 72 percent, turnout was only slightly lower than in 2020. Lai’s closest rival, Hou Yu-ih of the China-friendly Kuomintang, received 33.49 percent approval. The candidate of the populist Taiwan People’s Party, Ko Wen-je, received 26.46 percent. The people in the island nation with more than 23 million inhabitants voted for a continuation of the policy on China. Lai’s party supports Taiwan’s independence, although the 64-year-old says he does not want to officially declare this. Under his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, who was no longer allowed to run after two terms in office, tensions rose in the Taiwan Strait, the strait between China and Taiwan.
China dissatisfied with election results
Beijing broke off contact with Taipei in 2016. The Communist Party has historically argued that Taiwan is part of China, even though it has never ruled the island and has had an independent, democratically elected government there for decades. She repeatedly accuses the DPP of separatism. China wants to achieve “reunification” and bring it about militarily if necessary. However, a war in the Taiwan Strait, which is important for international shipping, would hit world trade very hard and could involve the USA.
Accordingly, the CP reacted less enthusiastically to the election. “No matter how the situation on the island of Taiwan changes, the fundamental fact that there is only one China in the world and that Taiwan is part of China cannot change,” the government in Beijing said. China’s Taiwan Affairs Administration spokesman Chen Binhua said the election results in Taiwan show that the Progressive Party does not represent the majority of prevailing public opinion on the island. China will oppose “separatist actions towards independence for Taiwan.”
More tensions possible in the Taiwan Strait
In Taiwan, the Chinese Affairs Office countered that Beijing should respect the election results and “face the new situation in the Taiwan Strait sensibly.” China should communicate with Taiwan without preconditions to create stability in the region. Meanwhile, the EU welcomed the outcome of the elections. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that all voters who took part in this democratic exercise were congratulated. Taiwan and the EU share a commitment to democracy, the rule of law and human rights.
The signs could now point to tensions in the Taiwan Strait. “There is an expectation that Beijing will respond by increasing pressure on Taiwan,” said Helena Legarda, a foreign and security policy expert at the Merics China Research Institute in Berlin. Further threats and military exercises are possible, as are trade policy constraints. However, the expert considered war to be “highly unlikely”. Even before the election, Beijing sent its air force and navy towards Taiwan almost daily as a show of force. China also sanctioned many of the island’s products.
Lai faces domestic political hurdles
On top of that, things could become more difficult domestically for Taiwan’s future government, which President Lai appoints. The DPP was the first party to win the presidential election for the third time in a row since 1996. However, it lost its absolute majority in parliament and will therefore need the support of other parties for political projects in the future. The DPP only got 51 of the 113 seats, while the KMT won one more with 52. The TPP won eight seats, two went to independent candidates. Lai has already announced that he wants to take politicians from other camps into account in his personnel decisions.
Some experts expect that the Progressive Party will seek greater relations with the USA, which has promised support to Taiwan in the event of a conflict. Lai also wants to invest further in the defense of Taiwan to deter China from even starting an invasion. The other presidential candidates had also called for this. The island republic has been purchasing weapons from the USA for a long time, something Beijing has always criticized. Domestically, Lai will be concerned about high rents, barely increased wages and improving the healthcare system for seniors.