ofAccording to observers of Angolan political life, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), in power since the independence of this former Portuguese colony in Central Africa in 1975, is not assured of victory during the legislative elections to be held this Wednesday, August 24. A wind of hope seems to be on the agenda, while many Angolans interviewed by our colleagues from AFP confided their desires for “change”, in this country of 33 million inhabitants, one of the most poor and unequal in the world.
Indeed, the polls predict a tight duel between the MPLA of João Lourenço and the opposition that can be located on the right dominated by the Unita of Adalberto Costa Júnior, 60 years old. In 2017, João Lourenço won with 61% of the vote. This former soldier had smoothly succeeded the former strongman José Eduardo dos Santos who had appointed him as dolphin, after 38 years of reign. Immediately, he turned his back on it by launching, to everyone’s surprise, a vigorous anti-corruption campaign. He is a candidate for a second term and has a good chance of being re-elected on August 24, although he has struggled to keep the promises of his first term, believe many observers.
The ex-artillery general trained in the USSR had promised radical reforms, but poverty remains glaring, in a climate of galloping inflation. “The MPLA’s popularity is low, especially in the cities,” Borges Nhamirre, of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria, told AFP. Lourenço “had promised more transparency, less corruption. Today, its governance is perceived as authoritarian”. The fall in oil prices had already put Angola in great difficulty. The least we can say is that the Covid-19, then the impacts of the war in Ukraine did not help matters.
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A deep economic recession
Inheriting an economy dependent on oil and in recession, he set up an ambitious reform plan aimed at varying the sources of income and privatizing public enterprises. For economists, the volatility of black gold prices is not the main cause of the economic difficulties that the country is going through, but the management of oil revenues.
“The problem is that the majority of the population has not benefited from these reforms,” says Marisa Lourenço. Many of the 33 million Angolans are struggling to feed themselves, facing inflation, but also the worst drought in 40 years. Many now view the anti-corruption campaign as selective and politically motivated, fueling divisions within the ruling party.
The death of Dos Santos in July further plagued President Lourenço, sparking a public feud with several of his children.
However, the change of course compared to the old regime has been welcomed abroad where its reputation remains rather solid. João Lourenço recently mediated talks between Kinshasa and Kigali, amid escalating tensions between these neighbors. During the launch of his election campaign last month, he notably promised new hospitals and better transport. He is married to Ana Dias Lourenço, a former minister who also represented Angola at the World Bank. They have six children.
He and his adversary, Adalberto Costa Júnior, dispute on the posters the title of “candidate of the people”, even if in Angola “the candidates always come from the elite”, underlines the independent political analyst Marisa Lourenço. Election time, the lower classes are courted.
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Unita in search of a new lease of life
Shirt and tie, facing the camera, calm tone and pedagogue: Adalberto Costa Júnior has invited himself since the start of the campaign into the daily lives of Angolans. On social networks, the main opponent of outgoing President João Lourenço, receding hairline and wide eyebrows, has become a popular figure in the southern African country, poor despite immense oil wealth. He is credited with reinvigorating the opposition, taking on the most serious challenge in the Portuguese-speaking country in decades. “There is clearly a buzz around Adalberto Costa,” says Alex Vines, Angola specialist at the Chatham House think tank.
Born in 1962 in Chinjenje, 700 km south of the capital, he contrasts with the outgoing president and the caciques of the ruling party: he did not fight during the interminable civil war between MPLA and Unita (1975-2002) . Inserted in Unita since independence, as a teenager, “ACJ” left for Portugal in 1980, where he represented the party with the diaspora and the government of the former colonizing country. He obtained a degree in electrical engineering and then Portuguese nationality, which he had to give up in 2019 after heavy criticism from his political opponents. It was not until 2003, in the aftermath of the civil war, that Costa Júnior returned to Angola for good. The son of a good family became spokesperson for Unita and was quickly noticed for his qualities as a speaker.
For a little less than a year, this slender, smooth-talking 60-year-old man has succeeded in rallying several opposition parties, in particular Abel Chivukuvuku’s CASA-CE coalition, which won nearly 10% of the vote in 2017, to strengthen his chances of dethroning the incumbent president. “The time has come to build a better country, without unrealistic promises and without megalomaniac projects,” he said in December, when he was re-elected as head of his party, Unita.
Observers give him little chance of victory against a presidential party still dominant on the national political scene and reluctant to leave power, held since independence in 1975. But Adalberto Costa Júnior is clearly “the most popular candidate”, also believes Marisa Lourenço. School, hospital, health… in each of the short pellets he regularly publishes on social networks, “ACJ”, as he is nicknamed, relentlessly attacks the record of the ruling MPLA, whose corruption he denounces.
Its liberal and pro-business political program speaks little to the poorest Angolans. But “the attraction of the opposition is largely based on a desire for change”, more than on adherence to a program, underlines Alex Vines. “Post-civil war loyalties continue to weigh and with voters voting first for the party, the MPLA remains the clear favourite,” said Ms.me Lourenco. Especially in the countryside. And the specter of possible irregularities during the vote further diminishes the chances of a clear victory for “ACJ”, notes the analyst.
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