elections in May
How the earthquake could benefit Erdogan
2/7/2023 6:43 p.m
In May, the Turkish President must face the voters. So far, Erdogan’s approval ratings have not been favorable. The earthquake could help it boost its image, analysts say. As long as he doesn’t make too many mistakes.
The elections in mid-May are likely to be the greatest challenge for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his two decades at the helm of Turkey. The earthquake in the Turkish-Syrian border region could reduce or increase Erdogan’s chances. According to experts, every misstep or accusation that there are not enough rescue workers available has a negative effect. So far, the six opposition parties have largely held back with criticism. Like those affected, they also complained that the authorities in some parts of the earthquake region reacted too slowly and were not well enough equipped. But they only called on the government to help those affected without any discrimination.
Analysts rather expect that Erdogan will be able to use the handling of the earthquake and the resulting reconstruction to his advantage. “Erdogan reacted quickly and consistently to the crisis,” explains the consulting firm Eurasia Group. “It will boost his image ahead of the May 14 election – if the government keeps up the momentum.” Erdogan is considered a good campaigner. He also has experience with natural disasters such as earthquakes or forest fires.
Reconstruction costs many billions
Global Source Partners analyst Atilla Yesilada said the cost of rebuilding the quake-hit region could be in the billions of dollars. The extent could turn both the economy and politics upside down. It is questionable whether the presidential and parliamentary elections could even take place there.
Erdogan has been at the head of Turkey with his Islamic conservative AKP since 2003. Polls ahead of the severe earthquake pointed to a close race. The ruling AKP is likely to remain the strongest force in parliament. But in terms of approval ratings, Erdogan is behind some potential opponents. Especially for swing voters, the government’s reaction to the earthquake could influence their decision, says Hasnein Malik, an analyst at the financial services provider Tellimer in Dubai. “But most of the voters have already made up their minds.”