While the Serbian part of the country is threatening secession, Bosniak and Croatian politicians are arguing bitterly about voting rights. The intervention of the “High Representative” provides additional sources of conflict.
Milorad Dodik has been shaping the politics of the Republic of Srpska for almost a quarter of a century – and thus also of the Bosnian state as a whole.
Milorad Dodik has held most of the senior posts open to a Serb politician in Bosnia-Herzegovina over the past two and a half decades. But he doesn’t think about quitting. After four years as the Serbian representative in the three-member state presidency, he is running in the elections this weekend as a candidate for the presidency of the Republic of Srpska, the majority Serbian part of the country. He held this post from 2010 to 2018. He has also been Prime Minister of the Republic of Srpska twice.
Creeping Serbian secession
Elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina usually receive little attention outside the country. The continuity of the staff is probably one reason for this, the eternal management of the ethnic trench warfare another. In addition, the political system of the small state is extremely complex. The Dayton Agreement, which put an end to the bloodiest of the Yugoslav wars of disintegration, created an intricate federal construct with numerous veto options for the various ethnic groups.
However, both the figure of Dodik and the complex political system are a reason to take a look at Bosnia, especially before this election. First Dodik: The Serbian part of the country he controls has been flirting with secession for a long time. But in the past year these efforts have reached a new level. Thus, the regional parliament prepared the ground for the withdrawal of the Republic of Srpska from state institutions, including the army. However, the step was not taken.
Dodik also seeks closeness to Vladimir Putin, demonstratively also after the attack on Ukraine. At the beginning of the month, in the middle of the election campaign, he traveled to Moscow again. The Russian president is popular among Serbian nationalists. The good connection to Banja Luka is also worthwhile for Putin. Moscow wants to keep the Balkans in a state of latent instability in order to prevent a connection to the West. Nowhere does he have a more compliant ally than in Bosnia. Against the background of the war in Ukraine, this is a cause for concern.
An avenue decorated with flags of the Republic of Srpska (RS) in the main town of Banja Luka.
Croats complain about discrimination
But Bosnia has more problems than Serbian secessionism. The conflicts between the Croats and the Bosniaks have also intensified. The majority of the two ethnic groups live in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the second largest part of the country as a whole.
The much smaller minority of Croatians have long complained that they are at a disadvantage. They are supported by the government in Zagreb, which is also campaigning for the concerns of the Bosnian Croats in the EU. The focus is currently on changing the electoral law.
Put simply, the point is that Croatian representatives may only be elected by Croats. The strongest Croatian party in Bosnia, for example, denies that the Croatian representative in the three-person state presidency, Zeljko Komsic, speaks for his ethnic group because he also received many Bosniak votes.
The High Representative intervenes
The High Representative for Bosnia-Herzegovina, the former German Minister of Agriculture Christian Schmidt, got involved in the dispute. The high-powered office was created after the war to ensure implementation of the Dayton Accords.
The post was justified in the early days, but has long suffered from a lack of legitimacy. The representative is not elected but appointed by a group of states. The abolition of the office is repeatedly demanded, for a long time it led a shadowy existence.
Since Schmidt’s predecessor passed a law criminalizing genocide denial on his last day in office, the representative has once again become a factor in Bosnian politics. The law was directed against Serbian nationalists. Dodik also refuses to recognize the Srebrenica massacre as genocide.
Strong criticism of the Bosniaks
Schmidt announced this year that he would force electoral reform if the parties did not come to an agreement themselves. The reform would meet Croatian demands. In return, the possibilities of blocking appointments should be reduced.
Schmidt’s plans have triggered violent reactions on the Bosnian side. Among other things, it is feared that it will give a boost to the long-held Croatian demand for a separate part of the country. The reform undoubtedly also solidifies the already far too strong ethnicization of Bosnian politics.
In July, several thousand people protested in front of the representative’s office in Sarajevo. The CSU member Schmidt was accused of being in the service of the Croatian HDZ, a conservative sister party. An embarrassing outburst of anger by Schmidt in front of the camera further damaged his authority.
Supporters of the Bosnian branch of the Croatian HDZ at an election rally in Mostar, the capital of Herzegovina.
Most commentators rightly point out that a delicate electoral law reform requires broad democratic legitimacy and therefore warn against Schmidt’s plans. There is a dissenting voice the International Crisis Group.
In her most recent report, she writes, it is justifiable for the representative to intervene if the federation’s political blockade cannot be resolved in any other way. In view of the creeping secession of the Republic of Srpska, the state cannot afford dysfunction in the second part of the country. However, the problem of the lack of democratic legitimacy for the reform is not solved with this justification.
Hardly any attention to real problems of the population
Elections are coming up in Bosnia-Herzegovina, while one part of the country is flirting with secession and the other is arguing about a reform that could be enacted by a democratically illegitimate institution. An end to the ethnic trench warfare is not in sight.
There is little time for the population’s most pressing problems, such as a lack of economic prospects, corruption or environmental pollution. According to a survey, more than half of young people are now thinking of emigrating. The country deserved more attention not only before elections.
