What if abstention was as much a matter for economists as for politicians? It is to develop the reasons for the desertion of the ballot boxes, and to explore the links between the weak participation and the implementation of public policies, that the Economic Analysis Council (CAE), a think tank attached to Matignon, is interested in the nature and reasons for this growing phenomenon. Started more than a year ago, this work, set out in a note published on Wednesday June 22, and that The world was able to consult, take on an even more acute meaning after the second round of the legislative elections of 12 and 19 June, again marked by record abstention (53.77%).
“We talk a lot about abstention, but less about inequalities in participation. However, the lower the participation in an election, the greater these inequalities.underlines Jean Beuve, lecturer at Paris-I, and one of the three co-authors of the note, with Etienne Fize and Vincent Pons.
Using data from INSEE’s electoral surveys for the past twenty years, which identify voters by socio-professional category, age group and income level, the three economists illustrate these inequalities over a long period. Thus, the over-representation of the elderly (60-69 years old) among voters, to the detriment of younger people (18-29 years old), is much clearer during “second-tier” elections, such as legislative elections, which mobilize fewer voters. French, than during presidential elections.
Offer not diversified enough
Ditto for executives, who are constantly overrepresented. The example of 2017, where, like this year, there were four occasions to vote in less than two months (the two rounds of the presidential election and then the legislative elections), is striking. During the first round of the race at the Elysee Palace, the weight among the voters of the poorest 25% (first quartile of income) was 10% lower than their actual weight among the registered voters. But it was 25% lower during the second round of the legislative elections, when these two figures rose respectively to 10% and almost 30% overrepresentation for the 25% wealthiest French people.
Why such disaffection? “Cannot find a single responsible”, believes Mr. Beuve. But, wearing their economist hats, the authors identify “a bundle of arguments”. First, the benefit to be expected from the victory of a candidate is often low in the minds of the French, in parallel with the feeling that the political offer is not diversified enough. “It’s the famous ‘all rotten’ that illustrates the crisis of voter confidence”explains Mr. Beuve. “During the triangular, there is often more participation”he notes.
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