The federal government informs the population with a data overview about the situation of the energy supply. However, no decisions about savings targets can be made on this basis. In terms of data, Switzerland is flying blind into this winter.
The filling level of the reservoirs can also be read in the federal government’s new data overview.
In the corona pandemic, data on the number of infections and free intensive care beds were important bases for the authorities to decide on measures. At the moment, it is not Corona that is stirring people’s spirits, but a possible energy shortage this winter.
However, Switzerland is poorly equipped for this in terms of data. For example, until now nothing reliable was known about how much electricity and gas is consumed in Switzerland on a daily basis.
Dashboard to inform the population
The Federal Office of Energy (BfE) wants to shed more light on the darkness and published a data overview on Wednesday («Dashboard») for energy supply switched on.
On the one hand, the aim of the online overview is to increase transparency, it was said at a press conference. It is intended to provide information about where Switzerland is in the supply of electricity and gas. On the other hand, the federal government wants to inform and sensitize the population. The Swiss should be able to get an idea of how the authorities assess the situation and what data they use to do this.
From green to dark red
For example, the dashboard contains a “traffic light” for the supply situation. The urgency is displayed in colors from green to dark red. At the moment, the situation for both electricity and gas is yellow (“strained”), which means that the supply is still guaranteed. However, the assessment is not based solely on data, but also on the judgment of experts from the administration.
Hardly any new information
However, the dashboard does not provide much more information than was previously available to the public. The representatives of the BfE admitted that the data on current electricity and gas consumption in particular were “on shaky ground”.
The problem lies in the poor data quality. Most electricity and gas suppliers in Switzerland only read their customers’ meters once a year. Smart meters, with which consumption can be measured promptly, are still not very common in this country.
With electricity, it is also the case that many of the around 600 local electricity suppliers supply the transmission system operator Swissgrid with initial estimates for the total consumption in their area on a daily basis. But this data is inaccurate. Late reports are frequent, which is why the authorities only know reliably after a few weeks or even months how high the total electricity consumption in Switzerland was at a given point in time.
Estimates rather than exact dates
The BfE therefore has to make do with model estimates. The main innovation of the dashboard is that it works with refined models.
For example, the BfE relies on a model that was developed using data science methods (machine learning) to estimate the current daily electricity consumption. It uses the currently available, but imprecise, data and compares it with empirical values from the past. At the same time, the weather is taken into account, since temperatures have a major impact on power consumption.
On this basis, the current electricity consumption in Switzerland can be estimated and a forecast made for the coming days. The latter is potentially important if the federal government has to decide whether to prescribe measures to save electricity and gas. There is a risk of shortages if the forecast electricity consumption is higher than the electricity that is produced and imported.
It probably doesn’t save much electricity
The model estimates indicate that households and companies in Switzerland are currently consuming slightly less electricity than the long-term average. However, according to the BfE, the estimates do not allow for any clear statements. This leaves open the question of whether the federal government’s austerity campaign is having an effect.
The dashboard does not provide a current model estimate for gas consumption. Only more reliable information is given here. In October, around 40 percent less natural gas was consumed in Switzerland than the average for the past five years. However, this was probably mainly due to the exceptionally warm weather in October.
In the backlog of digitization
The BfE wants to increase the data quality by the end of January and thus also improve the dashboard. According to the BfE, electricity suppliers have already installed smart meters for 25 to 30 percent of customers. The federal government wants to use their precise data to make better projections for the total electricity consumption in Switzerland. However, these will also be model estimates.
In the case of gas, they are working together with the industry to ensure that the suppliers deliver consumption data to the authorities more quickly. Apparently the federal government is not satisfied with the speed of the data flows. Switzerland urgently needs to speed up digitization, said BfE representatives at the press conference. In addition to smart networks, there are also legal foundations so that data can be collected and processed centrally.
No basis for decisions on savings targets
In the end, the decisive question is whether the information in the data overview is reliable enough for the federal government to make well-founded decisions on savings measures on the basis of it. This is not the goal of the dashboard, said federal officials. The process runs in such a way that measures would be proposed by the responsible Federal Office for National Economic Supply (BWL), and the Federal Council would then make the political decision.
A representative of the business administration explained at the press conference that the office had no other data available than what was now being shown to the public on the dashboard. In other words: Even the administration and the Federal Council can only roughly estimate how tight the supply situation for electricity and gas actually is.
In terms of data, Switzerland is flying blind into this winter. So it may be reassuring that, according to many experts, the probability that there will actually be a shortage this winter has fallen in recent weeks.