When does a brilliant central banker, praised for her efficient work, become an accomplice to a murderous regime? Are there, for competent Russian technocrats, other choices than flight or compromise? Elvira Nabioullina may have asked herself these existential questions when she appeared, dressed all in black, for a short solemn address on February 28. Russia had invaded Ukraine four days earlier, and the West had just frozen the assets of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), of which she is the governor. At least half of this Russian “war chest” of 630 billion dollars (573 billion euros), carefully accumulated during years of work, was now inaccessible.
Without mentioning the war or even “special military operation” in place, according to Kremlin terminology, Mme Nabioullina announced a brutal remedy to try to limit the Russian financial panic: a doubling of the key interest rate to 20% and severe capital controls. On Wednesday March 16, she suffered the affront of being the governor of the central bank, as the country missed a debt repayment deadline, taking the first step towards a default.
Severe tone and face, Elvira Nabiullina has been Vladimir Putin’s central banker since June 2013. Her professionalism is beyond doubt: “She is competent, open to dialogue, rational”, believes Sergei Guriev, a former economic adviser to the Russian government, who has worked regularly with her. He took the road to exile in France in 2012, after criticizing the arrests of political opponents. She chose to climb the ladder of a brilliant career. “Putin believes that she is loyal to him, otherwise she would not have had this position. She probably has a relationship of trust with him,” continues Mr. Guriev.
“She is not worried about the interest of the Russians”
Daniela Gabor, a specialist in central banks at the University of the West of England, in Bristol, confirms this, but in a more brutal way. “Competent technocrats who support murderous dictatorships hiding behind the pretext of “working for the Russian people” should be sent to The Hague [où siège la Cour pénale internationale]. » “She is part of the Russian system. She is not worried about the interests of the Russians, but of those of the Kremlin”adds Maximilian Hess, specialist on Russia at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, an American think tank.
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