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French President Emmanuel Macron is heading to Serbia on Thursday for a two-day visit during which Paris and Belgrade plan to conclude the sale of twelve French Rafale fighter jets to the Balkan country, which maintains friendly ties with Russia. In an interview with AFP on Wednesday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic expressed optimism about the signing of this “huge contract”. “Serbia could become a member of the Rafale Club,” he said.
Good “hope” in the negotiations
He had previously suggested that his country was prepared to pay three billion euros. The Élysée confirmed to journalists that it was “hopeful” that negotiations with the Dassault group would be concluded during the French president’s visit. The issue is sensitive: Belgrade, which hopes to one day join the European Union, maintains relations with Moscow despite the invasion of Ukraine, and has not imposed sanctions on Russia since the start of the war in 2022.
Speaking to AFP, President Vucic argued that almost all of the Serbian “interceptor planes” and “all” of the “combat planes came from Russia”. “We must evolve, change our habits and everything else in order to prepare our army,” he declared. France also puts forward this argument, evoking a logic of “tying Serbia to the European Union”, for which it is a candidate. Belgrade can make the “strategic choice” of “cooperating with a European country” to renew its fleet, they argue in Paris.
“Moving away from Russia in this way” for the renewal of its aircraft “has political weight today”, confirms Milan Igrutinovic, researcher at the Institute for European Studies in Belgrade.
“Consolidating the rule of law”
For Vuk Vuksanovic, from the Centre for Security Policy, another think tank in the Serbian capital, “Vucic is looking for a solution to replace his ageing MiGs”. “If he doesn’t find one, neighbouring Croatia, with its own Rafales, will have air superiority in the Western Balkans. And Vucic’s ego cannot accept that,” he explains. “Moreover, he thinks that by buying these Rafales, which are an extremely expensive product of the French arms industry, he will buy the political protection and favours of President Macron.”
The two countries did not discuss any counterparts to the transaction. France officially supports Serbia’s EU accession process, long defended by Aleksandar Vucic despite concerns expressed within the population. Eight months after the legislative elections marred by fraud according to the OECD and the European Parliament, won by the presidential party, the Élysée believes that this accession process must push Belgrade to “consolidate the rule of law” and “the democratic framework that must be its own”.
“Preliminary and exploratory discussions”
Emmanuel Macron must also advocate on the ground the “normalization of relations with Kosovo”, “an integral part” of this “rapprochement” with the Twenty-Seven. Since the independence of Kosovo in 2008, which Serbia has never recognized unlike many Western countries, attempts at appeasement and dialogue have all failed. The French president is expected in Belgrade at the end of the afternoon, where he will immediately speak with his counterpart.
A joint press conference will be preceded by the signing of agreements. In addition to the Rafale, “preliminary and exploratory discussions” are underway with the French electricity company EDF on civil nuclear power, and new cooperation is being considered in hydroelectric energy, wastewater treatment and health. The following day, the two men will travel to Novi Sad, the country’s second city, for a cultural stopover, with a visit to the Matica Srpska gallery, and a discussion on artificial intelligence.
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