End of life law: the thorny question of vital prognosis in the medium term


Yasmina Kattou / Photo credits: ALINE MORCILLO / HANS LUCAS / HANS LUCAS VIA AFP
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07:58, April 11, 2024

The law on the end of life was presented Wednesday morning to the Council of Ministers. She plans to support patients who suffer from serious and incurable illnesses, which inflict unbearable suffering on them. To benefit from the system, the vital prognosis must be engaged in the medium term for incurable patients. But the notion of “medium term” is ambiguous.

Caregivers are sounding the alarm. They are almost incapable of giving a reliable vital prognosis for patients at the end of life. However, it is one of the essential criteria to benefit from assistance in dying, the flagship measure of the bill presented Wednesday to the Council of Ministers. This vital prognosis must be undertaken in the medium term for incurable patients. The notion of “medium term” seems difficult to understand.

“Statistics have no individual value”

Several months, even a year, this is what a medium-term vital prognosis would correspond to. According to Jean-Yves Blay, president of Unicancer, the French federation of cancer centers, defining it is a delicate exercise. He himself is incapable of giving a formal answer to these patients.

“Patients ask us: what can we estimate as life expectancy? We will give a statistical average. The statistic has no individual value. Very often, we are wrong. This type of situation has been quite frequent as far as I’m concerned. It depends on too many factors for us to be extremely precise,” he explains to Europe 1.

“Life and individuals often prove us wrong”

Difficulties also encountered by Sophie Moulias of the French Society of Geriatrics and Gerontology. She reminds us that a patient’s condition can vary: “During this medium term, a lot of things can happen. The psychological plays a lot. The state of health at all times of the subject’s life influences their hope of life. This state can improve. That’s why I’m careful not to make this type of prognosis. Life and individuals often prove us wrong.”

Furthermore, for certain diseases such as cancer, a pessimistic prognosis can change favorably thanks to the authorization of new treatments or integration into a clinical trial.



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