Tonight, the last three nuclear power plants in Emsland, Neckarwestheim and Isar 2 will finally go offline – at least that’s what the Bundestag decided after Chancellor Olaf Scholz had spoken the word last year. But shortly before the end of the terms, a debate flares up again about the possible use of nuclear power plants. Some say: In times of energy crisis and energy transition, we cannot afford to do without nuclear power. Others say it’s an expensive and dangerous source of energy that doesn’t contribute much to security of supply. So what now? An overview:
Why are nuclear power plants being shut down?
The shutdown of the nuclear power plants is based on the exit decision of the then red-green federal government in 2002 and its new version in 2011 after the reactor disaster in Fukushima by the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Since then, the Atomic Energy Act has also prohibited the construction of new nuclear power plants.
Why weren’t the nuclear power plants shut down at the end of the year?
Actually, the shutdown should have taken place at the turn of the year, but this was postponed by three and a half months due to the energy shortage caused by the Ukraine war. Although no new fuel elements were used for the extension, the existing ones were reconfigured again. The so-called stretching operation that followed was accompanied by a reduced power plant output. The basis for the extended operating time was a word of power from Scholz, after the FDP and Greens in particular had not been able to agree on the extent of the stretching operation.
How much electricity are the last three reactors currently generating?
Last year, the share of nuclear energy in the electricity mix was only 6.4 percent. This means that the share has almost halved compared to 2021.
What did the continued operation until mid-April bring?
A manageable contribution. According to the industry association BDEW, nuclear energy accounted for four percent of electricity generation in Germany in January and February – a third less than in 2022 as a whole. Manuel Frondel from the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Essen said that continued operation had been helpful in that than that large numbers of French nuclear power plants are still not connected to the grid.
Does more gas now have to be converted into electricity when the nuclear power plants are shut down?
Nuclear power plants are base load power plants. This means they produce electricity all day long and cannot be switched on and off quickly for peak times. Gas-fired power plants, on the other hand, can be ramped up more quickly. Gas and nuclear power plants therefore play very different roles in the supply of electricity.
Calculations by the analysis institute Energy Brainpool on behalf of the eco-energy cooperative Green Planet Energy show that the continued operation of the last three nuclear power plants would save only one percent of natural gas consumption.
What will then replace the share of nuclear energy in the electricity mix?
The modeling by Energy Brainpool has shown that nuclear power plants primarily replace power generation from lignite and hard coal power plants and increase electricity exports. This is exactly what the deputy chairman of the Union faction, Jens Spahn, criticizes in the “early start” of ntv: “This green climate minister prefers to run coal-fired power plants – the ultimate climate killer, CO2 polluters – than climate-neutral nuclear power plants.”
So would continued operation for climate-neutral energy generation be better?
In the short term, yes. In the long term, things look different. Because the reactors leave behind highly radioactive waste. The nuclear waste is currently stored in interim storage facilities. Long-term solutions are still being sought. The only thing that is clear is that it will keep future generations busy for centuries: according to current plans, nuclear waste is to be stored deep in the rock for a million years.
The modeling by Energy Brainpool also came to the conclusion that nuclear energy is important for German electricity exports. Why?
Germany is an important electricity and gas supplier for Europe. This is due to its geographical location, but also to the size of the country. The European electricity market, which is integrated and should contribute to the security of supply for all EU countries, also plays a role here. In the past, for example, Germany often exported electricity to France, but also to Austria. For this reason, the government not only has to keep an eye on its own security of supply when modeling.
Last year, Germany even had to produce gas to provide short-term support for France. In times of gas shortages, it would make more sense to continue exporting nuclear energy than generating electricity from valuable gas.
Is there a risk of security of supply tipping over if the power plants are shut down?
During the debate about the lifetime extension last year, the Federal Ministry of Economics commissioned a stress test to find out whether Germany could get by without nuclear power in the event of an impending energy crisis. The result: A crisis situation in the electricity system was unlikely for the past winter, but could not be ruled out. Therefore, the nuclear power plants were used for a stretching operation. However, the feared gas shortage and energy crisis did not materialize – albeit not without some price shocks.
What is the security of supply for the coming winter?
Opinions differ here: some say that we will get through the coming winter just fine without nuclear energy. For example, Bruno Burger from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE: “In my opinion, we don’t need the nuclear power plants for next winter,” Burger says to the ZDF portal today. “There is currently enough gas, even without Russia. If next winter doesn’t get extremely colder than the current one, then we won’t have a problem.”
However, the President of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), Peter Adrian, sees things differently. “When it comes to security of supply, we’re not over the mountain yet,” he told the “Rheinische Post”. Despite falling gas prices, energy costs remain high for many companies.
Does nuclear power have an impact on electricity prices?
Yes, says business wise man Veronika Grimm: “The more power plant capacity is available, the lower the electricity prices are,” she explains on ZDF. You have to “expand the electricity supply so that the large electricity supply meets the demand and the price is pushed down”.
Can the nuclear power plants continue to operate at all?
There is a lack of new fuel elements and personnel. In addition, new security checks, which have been due since 2019, would have to be carried out. Even the operators consider continued operation to be impossible. “It is too late for a further extension of the lifetime of the nuclear power plants,” said EnBW, Georg Stamatelopoulos of the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”. “This industry simply doesn’t exist in Germany anymore, we’ve reduced it over ten years.”
And why don’t we just order new fuel elements?
The main reason is dependence on Russia. A fifth of the nuclear fuel used in Germany comes from Russia – another fifth from Kazakhstan. “From our point of view, we are actually even more dependent on Russia for nuclear power plants and nuclear technology than for gas or oil,” said Anke Herold, scientific director of the Öko-Institut, on Deutschlandfunk.
How are the neighboring countries that still operate nuclear power plants doing?
Many nuclear power plants are still online in France – and there are no plans to change this in the near future. However, dependency on nuclear power has repeatedly led to supply bottlenecks in neighboring Germany. This was also the case last summer, when many ailing nuclear power plants had to be taken off the grid and, on top of that, a drought forced some power plants to take a break.
Could it now be continued?
This is rather unlikely – but not impossible. To do this, the federal government would have to pass a new law or change the existing Atomic Energy Act again. Above all, the FDP is for the continued operation of nuclear power. She is also supported by the opposition. Spahn confirmed in the “early start” that his parliamentary group would support the Liberals with such a draft law. However, it is unlikely that there would be a majority in the Bundestag for the operational reserve that Spahn is aiming for until at least 2024.
What does the population say about the nuclear phase-out?
According to the current RTL/ntv trend barometer, 28 percent of Germans think the final nuclear phase-out is correct. Two thirds, on the other hand, do not think the phase-out is right and are of the opinion that the three nuclear power plants will continue to be used to generate electricity (43 percent) or that even some of the decommissioned nuclear power plants should produce electricity again (25 percent). A majority of only the supporters of the Greens (65 percent) are in favor of a final shutdown.
What happens immediately after the shutdown?
Even after the power plants have been disconnected from the grid and nuclear fission has stopped, the reactors must continue to be cooled and all systems and components relevant to this operating state must continue to be maintained for the time being. First, in the days after the shutdown, the 193 fuel elements per power plant are taken from the reactor core into water-filled storage pools.
How will things continue in the future?
After that, the systems can gradually be dismantled, for which separate permits are required. After a cooldown period, the fuel elements are taken to interim storage facilities for nuclear waste at the power plant sites. It may be several years before a “green field” is restored there. Environment Minister Steffi Lemke expects that another 30,000 generations will have to live with nuclear waste.