The manager of the electricity network presented, on Tuesday, the update of its forecasts for this winter, while fears remain for the month of January.
Will we have enough electricity in January? While EDF is still struggling to quickly restart its nuclear power plants, the tricolor electricity network manager, RTE, presented this Tuesday morning the update of its outlook for winter 2022-2023. Its analyzes are scrutinized closely, as the concerns around the supply of the system and the tensions on the supply for the cold weeks to come remain acute. But the group is slightly less worried than expected.
France “enters the heart of winter in a more favorable situation than at the beginning of autumn, and better prepared to face stressful situations“, notes the company in its report. Three reasons are cited by RTE to justify this observation. On the one hand, the sobriety efforts observed week after week pay off: “the trend of decreasing electricity consumption is now firmly established“, emphasizes the company. First identified in industry, the decline is now evident in all sectors, including residential and tertiary. Over the last four weeks, it has risen to -12% in industry (compared to last year), and -7% in the residential and tertiary sectors.
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This denotes significant awareness among stakeholders, symbolized by the 2.5 million downloads of the Ecowatt application. “Lowering electricity consumption is not a pipe dream. It is real, measured, distributed between individuals and businesses, and significant“, pointed out this Tuesday morning Thomas Veyrenc, the director of strategy of RTE, during a press conference. In addition, European interconnections, allowing France to import electricity, “work satisfactorily“, notes RTE. At last, “the production potential has increasedthanks to the acceleration of the restart of nuclear reactors – of which two-thirds are now available – and the good state of hydraulic stocks. The “worst-case scenarios for nuclear generationare therefore discarded.
These various elements enable RTE to put “reduce the risk of emitting the Ecowatt red signal in relation to central visionfrom mid-September. In December, as during the holidays – a period traditionally when consumption drops – the risk of an Ecowatt signal being transmitted is now considered “almost nothing“. “You can leave quietly on vacation, the probability of using the Ecowatt red signal is almost zero between Christmas and New Year“, indicated Thomas Veyrenc. Then, in January, the risk level is “lowered by “raised” to “average””. An encouraging result, certainly, but which does not yet completely rule out the danger for the start of the year. In addition, it remains dependent on the efforts of the French in terms of sobriety, and the sacrifices of industrialists, made because of the soaring energy prices. In addition, France remains dependent on the weather: RTE does not rule out having to use the Ecowatt red signal “in very adverse weather conditions“. Thus, for the second part of the winter, RTE anticipates between 0 and 3 Ecowatt red signals, against between 0 and 5 so far.
The “discarded” worst-case scenario
While he does not say he is worried about the gas supply either, whose stocks are currently 85% full, RTE looks ahead a few months, and stresses that “the second part of the winter, and especially the winter of 2023-2024 are, on the other hand, under surveillance“. A call for vigilance that should not go unnoticed. The weather forecasts for the next few weeks are also rather reassuring for the electricity network, notes RTE. They “do not lead us to a short-term alert“, said Thomas Veyrenc. In the medium term, in January, there is “no cold signal identifieduntil then, added the manager’s chief strategy officer. Longer term, “winter 2023-2024 is looking a little more favorable than winter 2022-2023“, he said, referring to a next report to be published in the spring of 2023.
In his latest forecasts, in November, the manager painted a mixed picture. On the battery side, RTE was reassuring about the month of December, which, so far, has not seen any red Ecowatt signal, indicating that major sobriety efforts are essential to avoid having to face temporary and organized cuts. . On the face side, the company sounded the alarm bell for January, while the restart of nuclear power plants was once again falling behind schedule: “The anticipated reductions in consumption, particularly in the industrial sector, are not likely to offset the foreseeable drop in nuclear production“, he indicated in particular in his report. And to emphasize that, at the beginning of 2023, the Ecowatt signals will depend “largely from climatic conditions and the possible occurrence of even a moderate cold snap“. What worries the authorities.
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However, in recent days, the actors have been rather reassuring. “We ruled out the worst-case scenario“, declared even mid-December Thomas Veyrenc, in front of the senators. The sobriety efforts of French households and economic players, the restarting of power stations, the good condition of the hydraulic system and the efficient European interconnections have already enabled France to get through the month of December. If these elements are maintained in January, the risk of cuts should be considerably reduced, if not ruled out.