Interview: Fabienne Kinzelmann
Even Omikron does not spoil Emma Hodcroft (35) the joy. Blick reached the cheerful epidemiologist for an interview with her family by phone. Like many, she was able to celebrate Christmas with loved ones for the first time in two years. “This is something I will never take for granted again,” she writes on Twitter, where more than 76,000 people follow the internationally known scientist.
What one thing should Switzerland have done differently in 2021?
Hodcroft: Just one, hmm.
Do you think of so many right away?
In any case, I would have liked Switzerland to have taken a real leadership role in the equitable global distribution of vaccines.
Switzerland was the first country to use the Covax initiative to distribute the Moderna cans intended for it to developing countries.
Yes, that was fantastic! And I hope other countries will follow suit. But even as a small country, she could probably have done more. And last autumn we would have needed a few more measures because our hospitals will still be full of Delta patients when Omikron hits. There are still many winter months ahead of us. We could be better prepared now.
56% omicron cases: Omikron is raging brutally in Switzerland(00:48)
Omikron is more contagious, but it is milder. The virologist Christian Drosten and the German health minister Karl Lauterbach are therefore “cautiously optimistic”. They also?
We have to be very careful when talking about the severity. Partly that’s because of the protection provided by vaccines and previous infections, partly because the variant is less dangerous – but we don’t yet know how much is due to which factor.
In South Africa, the omicron wave is over again. Can we learn something from this for Switzerland?
South Africa shows us that the number of cases at Omikron can drop quickly. But I would always be careful about comparing two countries. There are big differences between South Africa and Europe, for example. First of all, South Africa had extremely low case numbers before the Omikron wave and was quick to adopt tough measures. And people’s behavior often changes automatically when the number of cases is very high. Many people then voluntarily skip parties – whether they are allowed or not. And South Africa has a seasonal advantage. It’s summer there right now, so people are probably more out there. We also had fewer cases in the summer. But now it’s winter with us.
What do you think of the thesis that the variant is our «way out» to the endemic?
Even before Omikron, the German health minister said something very clever: after this winter everyone will either be vaccinated, recovered or dead. Sounds tough, but it is – because herd immunity is the only way out of this pandemic. I would highly recommend doing that with vaccinations because the vaccines are incredibly safe and incredibly effective.
But otherwise is there just the same result with more deaths?
Yes. The vaccinated or recovered population will have higher immune levels, which will also help us protect ourselves from new variants. However, we do not know exactly how high the protection is. “Escape variants” such as Omikron can partially bypass the immune protection, but then we also have boosters.
Does this ever end?
I don’t think we’ll need boosters forever. But maybe a few more in the next few years. Each of these strengthens immunity and makes it wider. This also partially protects us from future variants. The same will happen to unvaccinated people if they go through one or more infections. But this is the mallet method with a risk for both individuals and society.
What does that mean: broader immunity? Do the vaccines have to be adapted for this?
That’s a way, yes. A lot is happening in vaccine development and a so-called “multivalent” vaccine protects against numerous variants. But even a booster with the exact same vaccine stimulates the immune system again. Our body forms a large and arbitrary variety of antibodies. So every time you are exposed – through a vaccination or an infection – there is a chance that you will make more antibodies that stick to slightly different places than the previous ones.
The virus hunter
Without her work, the world would be in the dark when it comes to corona variants: Epidemiologist Emma Hodcroft (35) from the University of Basel has been on the trail of mutations since the beginning of the pandemic. To this end, she co-founded the open source platform Nextstrain, where researchers from all over the world submit their results. The scientist, who grew up in Scotland and Texas, tirelessly explains the pandemic in the international media and on Twitter.
Without her work, the world would be in the dark when it comes to corona variants: Epidemiologist Emma Hodcroft (35) from the University of Basel has been on the trail of mutations since the beginning of the pandemic. To this end, she co-founded the open source platform Nextstrain, where researchers from all over the world submit their results. The scientist, who grew up in Scotland and Texas, tirelessly explains the pandemic in the international media and on Twitter.
Do you worry about Omikron more than Delta?
Yes. Because of the speed of its spread. And because Omikron can bypass immune protection, especially if you are not boosted. The vaccination still protects very well against a serious illness, but not quite as well as before. And if many are infected at the same time, even milder courses will not help us overall. If the percentage of sick people who have to be hospitalized is halved, but the number of cases is six times higher, an extremely large number of people need treatment at the same time. For hospitals, it is the number that counts, not the percentage.
Currently, the intensive care units are almost equally occupied with Covid 19 patients and other sick people. 24 percent of the beds are still free – less than a quarter. Can an overload of the health system still be avoided at all?
After a short plateau, the number of infections is now rising steeply. We definitely have to reconsider whether more measures are needed. And we shouldn’t wait too long for that. Over Christmas, many were perhaps more cautious and went out less. Now that the holidays are over, we have to be careful that the virus does not spread any further because we are back to “business as usual”.
At its emergency meeting on Friday, the Federal Council did not decide on any measures. Is that understandable for you?
We see that cases are rising sharply and we know that the number of hospitalizations and deaths often increases with a delay of weeks. Because of this, we are not seeing any real effects yet, but we do know that at least some of these now infected people will need treatment. We shouldn’t wait until the hospitals are full until we take action again – we should try to get the infection numbers down now.
A lockdown seems far away. The task force expects up to 30,000 infections per day in the next few weeks.
I am confident that we will not need a full closure. Hopefully, if we can manage our restrictions wisely and keep the caseload down – that is, not let them skyrocket – we can hopefully avoid another full lockdown. But when the health systems are really overwhelmed, when we have to decide who will be treated, …
Optimistic for 2022: WHO takes stock after two years of pandemic(00:59)
So if it no longer works without triage.
… then, unfortunately, a one or two week lockdown is the most effective way of relieving the pressure on the health system. I really hope it doesn’t come to that. But we have to keep this open as an option because it would be devastating if the hospitals got into a situation in which they could no longer treat sick people.
Christian Drosten and other experts feared the pandemic could last until 2024. Now we are clearly seeing an endemic situation in South Africa. When do you see light?
I hate to give specific figures because we simply cannot know at this point in time. Even before Omikron, there were scientists who believed we shouldn’t have to worry about future mutants. Delta would be the last relevant variant. Well So it could be a year, it could be two, maybe five. We should assume that we do not know exactly what phase of the pandemic we are in and that we should prepare for future phases as a precaution. It doesn’t matter whether the end comes sooner or not.
Two days before Christmas, the American drug approval authority FDA granted emergency approval to the corona drug Paxlovid. Does the Covid-19 take the scare away?
This is really exciting! Because it has reduced hospitalization or death from Covid-19 in at-risk adults by 89 percent in clinical studies and is easy to take, it could be a game changer. Just like all the other tablets and drugs that are currently being developed. We just have to make sure that the drugs are quickly available in poorer countries and that things don’t go as they did with the vaccines.
You write on Twitter that you felt like a record playing the same unheard warnings over and over again. What is it that drives you?
My responsibility as a scientist. Sharing what I know can help solve problems: make this pandemic less deadly, less harmful to the psyche, society and economy. It is my moral duty to say the same thing over and over again.
Can you understand politicians who do not prioritize fighting pandemics?
I am definitely not jealous of her role. Politicians face several social challenges. And we as scientists alone cannot weigh up which measure causes which long-term damage to society. Of course, we recommend school closings when schools are hotspots – but the ability to keep schools open as safely as possible for the good of society can outweigh this risk. Political decisions cannot be made in a vacuum and they are not easy. On the other hand, politicians must also be aware that they cannot navigate their way through. We would all benefit from better communication between scientists and politicians.